By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
Feb. 28, 2008
From FantasyFanatics.com
If you are in a close battle in your fantasy basketball league, the month of March is absolutely crucial. The NBA trade deadline has passed and injuries abound. As teams are eliminated from playoff contention, more and more will start playing their young players to see what they have. Since my team has been decimated by boo-boos, I’ve been forced to consider a lot of the rookies out there who are certain to get long looks over the final month. As part of my self-appointed positions of, in no particular order, Wise Fantasy Basketball Seer and Executive Director of Panic-Stricken Freakouts, I present a reasoned yet paranoid analysis of rookies who could make a difference in March.
GROUP 1: START THEM THE REST OF THE WAY
Only two rookies are averaging 30 minutes per game this season thus far - Kevin Durant and Al Horford. Both should improve down the stretch… Horford is having a nice February, averaging a double-double. What fantasy owners want to see is an improved field goal percentage and some more blocks… Durant has been a minor disappointment this year. He’s shooting 40 percent from the floor, rebounding at only a 4.1 clip and blocking inconsistently. In other words, he has been much closer to a shooting guard than a do-everything fantasy forward. It makes sense that he’ll improve in March, but his stats so far have been pretty steady… Luis Scola should get the chance to shine with Yao Ming out for the year. Scola has averaged 8.9 points and 5.4 boards this year - hardly roto-worthy - but when he’s played 30-plus minutes his numbers have been much better. This is a guy shooting 52.6 percent from the field. He doesn’t block anything or steal much, but at this point he should be owned in all leagues… Out in Los Angeles, the Al Thornton phenomenon is coming to fruition. He has scored in double figures in nine straight games and 13 of his last 14. Averaging nearly 17 a game in February, he is clearly becoming a guy to own down the stretch. Beware: he won’t get you too many steals or three-pointers… This may be wishful thinking because I’ve stashed him on my bench, but Juan Carlos Navarro is a great cheap option for threes as the season comes to a close. Navarro should play big minutes for the hopeless Grizzlies the rest of the way. While he doesn’t do much but score the ball, his 23-point, 6-trifecta, 43-minute outing on Tuesday night is a great omen… Navarro’s teammate, Mike Conley, will probably be let loose the rest of the way. After he went for 15 points and 11 assists on Tuesday night, it would not surprise us in the least if he became worthy of a weekly fantasy start the rest of the way.
GROUP 2: SPOT STARTERS IN A PINCH
Thanks to Gerald Wallace and Brandon Roy, I’m officially desperate at forward. That’s why I have to start Jamario Moon and Thaddeus Young this week. Not really what I need right now as I’m in a tight battle to finish in the top four in my league… Moon threw up a 9 and 2 for me to start the week, so I’m putting him in this second group. Truthfully, his role on Toronto has driven his owners nuts all year. That said, February has been his best month and he really does make a nice complementary player for the Raptors… Young has also found his way onto my team this week, his cue to stop producing almost immediately. He had six points and five rebounds Wednesday night and has really dipped since I claimed him last week in an act of pure desperation. Young should get plenty of run the rest of the way, just don’t expect more than 12 points and six boards or so… In Chicago, Joakim Noah may not have the chance his owners want with Drew Gooden in town and Tyrus Thomas picking it up. Noah’s still starting, so throw him out there with care. He isn’t blocking shots or stealing the ball like he is capable of, so it is tough to count on him… Jeff Green has been getting minutes and starting for a while now - and not doing much from a fantasy perspective. He had a promising game against the Warriors on Tuesday - 21 points and nine boards - but he looks like another Young statistically. He’ll play a lot in March, but will he produce a lot?
GROUP 3: NOT READY YET
It looks like Sean Williams is not going to get on the court enough to be putting up those salivating stat lines we daydream about. He hasn’t played more than 13 minutes in four straight games, falling out of favor as second-year center Josh Boone impresses… Another once-promising rookie is tailing off in Yi Jianlian. Charlie Villanueva is getting the starts and minutes in Milwaukee. We’re on the record saying it would be stupid not to give Yi at least 25 minutes a night the rest of the way. Why the heck not?… I can’t be the only one out there sick of waiting for Corey Brewer to get it together. I’m taking him next year though - he’ll be a stud some day… Gerald Wallace’s concussion opens up minutes for Jared Dudley. Unfortunately, Dudley hasn’t done much with those minutes this year when he’s gotten them.
This Week’s Tip: The following NBA sophomores haven’t produced much this year for various reasons - but could get it together for the final month of the year. Keep an eye on Andrea Bargnani (TOR), Randy Foye (MIN), Tyrus Thomas (CHI) and Renaldo Balkman (NYK).
Whine of the Week: The gut-punch moment of any fantasy season is when the first-place team drops a bombshell trade on the rest of the league right before the deadline. In one of my leagues, I’m in second place and vigilantly making moves and trying to somehow sneak into first. Then I see the team I’m chasing traded Mehmet Okur for Mo Williams, who proceeded to put up a 36-5-5 in his next game. A special thanks to the owner who felt like he needed Okur badly enough to do that fleecing of a transaction. Me? I’m done.
Jeff Andriesse is the editor of Rotowhine.com, a fantasy sports web site dedicated to the downtrodden, disenfranchized and scorned on-line gamer. If you have a fantasy-sports horror story you’d like to share, take a number.
