By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
January 9, 2008
As the returns came in Tuesday night, I sat there as shocked as many of you. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing.
I’m referring, of course, to Jermaine O’Neal’s first quarter against the Jazz in which he put up zero points, zero rebounds and two fouls. Granted, Jermaine finished with one of his better lines in recent memory - nine points and four rebounds - but he’s making it awfully hard for me to focus. As he continues to sabotage two of my fantasy teams, my New Year’s resolutions (exercise more, avoid fried foods, stop punching holes in random walls) are falling by the wayside.
No longer am I able to function normally as things like work and family slip from my consciousness. I’m hopelessly behind on my current events (by the way, congratulations to Walter Mondale - go get ‘em Fritz!). I’m currently on Wikipedia re-learning how to bathe.
What strikes me as particularly upsetting is that fantasy basketball, once thought to be the last bastion of predictability in our imaginary world, has become the most frustrating and inexplicable.
You’ll have to forgive me for my nerves being a little frayed. My first-round pick in my weekly league was Gilbert Arenas (perhaps out for the year). My fourth-round selection was Emeka Okafor (perhaps a bad shooting guard from the NBDL if you just go by the box scores) and my sixth-round pick was Ray Allen (perhaps the least essential player in the Celtics’ primary rotation). Combined with O’Neal and my eighth-round pick Steve Barbosa (his twin brother Leandro is a fantastic player for the Suns when I don’t start him), I have a team that can only be labeled a letdown.
After winning a fantasy football championship last week with Earnest Graham as my best player, I am having a hard time believing that fantasy basketball is suddenly so unreliable. Take injuries out of the equation and hoops is smooth as butter. You usually know what you’re gonna get.
So why are guys throughout the league so unpredictable this year? Is it just my players? Will any of these duds bounce back in the second half of the season? All of these questions are important as we head into the crucial months of the season. From January through March, fantasy nerds everywhere should get over their football withdrawals and keep their jonesing for baseball to a minimum. There are fantasy basketball titles to be won, and together we must sit down and figure out if any of the guys who have ruined many a season thus far are worth hanging onto or trading. And then we’ll punch another whole in our wall. Together.
Jermaine O’Neal - Things are not looking good for JO. Another pitiful performance Tuesday night could be the last straw for any fantasy owners hoping to somehow pull off a late-season run. O’Neal’s creaky body is breaking down as if he’s donating an organ to science once a week. He still laces them up every night (or so he tried) and there is some solace in that he’s blocking shots at a rather steady rate.
Advice: See what you can get for him from the team in your league that is desperate for blocks. But don’t expect to get back value equal to where you drafted him.
Emeka Okafor - A mystery all season, Okafor seems to suck no matter what Nazr Mohammed’s role is. Okafor was bad before Mohammed got there, he was bad when Mohammed was starting with him and he’s bad with Mohammed coming off the bench. Gerald Wallace and Jason Richardson have been hogging the shots, but you at least expect Emeka to grab a lot of rebounds. His numbers are not awful, but they are falling rather fast.
Advice: If you have good or better center options, shop Okafor. It looks like this will be a long, down year for him.
Ray Allen - Allen was expected to be a far cry from his Seattle self, but lately it has been far worse than that for his owners. Tuesday’s announcement that Allen is suffering from a myriad of nagging injuries explains a lot but doesn’t help us. Of course I started him this week the day before I learned he was doubtful for Wednesday’s game vs. Charlotte.
Advice: Tough call. Allen still hits a lot of threes, which are very valuable. His dropoff has to be attributed to injuries, and as the Celtics continue to dominate I could see him being very careful with his body from here on out.
Leandro Barbosa - So is this the year Grant Hill isn’t going to get hurt, just because I have Barbosa? I am at wit’s end, and that’s saying a lot.
Advice: Barbosa owners are considering checking into a mental institution at this point. I say: put down a deposit, but avoid the straight jacket for the moment. He’s a Hill injury away from taking off.
Eddy Curry - Curry went off on the Bulls Tuesday night for 29 points, eight boards and four blocks. He’s coming on strong lately and might be able to save a season that to this point has been a waste.
Advice: Enjoy Curry’s streak, but look to trade him once the other owners in your league catch on. I wouldn’t trust any Knick going forward.
Dwyane Wade - It looks like Wade’s injuries are here to stay. Not a surprise, but still a minor gut-punch to those who took him high at the draft and waited out the first few weeks of the season. He put up a 25-5-7 tonight in 39 minutes, so it appears he is going to tough it out.
Advice: If you are stuck in a rut and need to make a splash, try to get Wade for the stretch run. At best, he’s one of the top handful of fantasy players. At worst, your team is still going nowhere. If you own Wade, don’t panic yet.
Vince Carter - Ugh. Carter just seems too OK with Richard Jefferson being the man. A comfortable Vince Carter makes for thousands of very uncomfortable fantasy owners. January was going well for Vince until his 17-1-3 stinker Tuesday night at Charlotte.
Advice: Carter will probably get it going in the second half. If you sense an owner in your league giving up on him, pounce.
Joe Johnson - He’s averaging 21.3-3.9-5.4 with close to two 3s, but Johnson has been a real downer this year nonetheless. He has missed double figures for two straight games and is shooting just 40.8 percent from the field.
Advice: Johnson is still getting big minutes, so ride it out. He has to regain his form at some point.
Kirk Hinrich - It has been nice to see seven straight double-figure scoring games from Hinrich, who obviously struggled mightily early on in the year. He’s slowly getting it together and is helped by the coaching change in Chicago.
Advice: See if you can parlay Hinrich’s improvement into a trade. He’s always been a bit over-valued and some owner who needs a point guard might be willing to bite.
Mehmet Okur - A candidate for the biggest fantasy disappointment so far, Okur is slowly but certainly not surely turning things around. He has to pick it up at some point, but it looks like Utah is prepared to keep going with him as a secondary option.
Advice: Okur is a waste of space on your fantasy team at this point. If the big guy isn’t scoring or raining threes he’s pretty useless because he doesn’t block anything. Use the lure of his name as trade bait if you can.
Andrea Bargnani - Bargnani was supposed to break out this year but instead has turned into a negative fantasy player. He scored 25 points vs. the Pistons last week only to follow it up with four points against the Cavs two nights later. Expect more of the same the rest of the way.
Advice: Keep him glued to your bench and make him prove he can put together weeks (yes, weeks) of good production before trusting him again.
This Week’s Tip: Prepare for next year’s draft now. Chances are if you’re worse than fifth place in your league you’re likely out of it. It is so hard to make a strong move up the standings in basketball this late in the year. That’s no excuse for not paying attention. Read every box score. Chart every guy you can. Start writing down your sleepers now. Figure out where guys can help you and in what round in next year’s draft.
Weekly Whine: In our digital, desensitized fantasy world, it is easy to forget the basic social skills of yore that 10-15 percent of people still put into practice today. If you are going to make a trade offer, call your buddy or at least write an email explaining your offer. There’s nothing more annoying than an automated email from Yahoo or ESPN that you open up and see some bobo in your league has offered you Anthony Parker and Francisco Garcia for Kobe Bryant. We’re better than that, people.
P.S. - I’ll take Parker and Garcia for Jermaine O’Neal.
The Fantasy Basketball Wednesday Whine will appear weekly on www.FantasyFanatics.com.
