Rotowhine Fantasy Basketball Preview: Shooting Guards

By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
Oct. 21, 2008

The shooting guard is an infuriating fantasy position. If you have to take one, use this list as a guide. Unless I get one of the stars, I try to avoid having more than two in my starting lineup.

Rules: Rotisserie scoring, eight categories (see projections). Injury risk calculated into each ranking. Certain hybrids not ranked here; consult your league’s positional rules before making your final cheat sheets.

1. Kobe Bryant, LAL
I pinkie-swear that I dislike Kobe this year. But he’s No. 1 by default. His pinkie injury is a little disconcerting, as is the return of Andrew Bynum. But Kobe is too, um, Kobe to not make it all about his stats at the end of the day.
2008-09 Projections: 28.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.8 3PG, 1.7 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 46.3 FG%, 83.3 FT%

2. Dwyane Wade, MIA
Neck and neck with Kobe if you believe he is going to play 75-82 games. Wade looked completely healthy and dominant in the Olympics, so I’m buying high. He’s my No. 5 overall pick right now.
2008-09 Projections: 26.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 6.2 APG, 0.4 3PG, 1.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 47.5 FG%, 77.0 FT%

3. Joe Johnson, ATL
Joe-Jo was ridiculously good after the Mike Bibby trade, averaging like a 23-5-6 with two and a half threes a game. Johnson averaged 25 points per game the year before, so it is possible he could get back there. A huge year is in the cards.
2008-09 Projections: 24.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.4 APG, 2.3 3PG, 1.1 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 45.6 FG%, 81.0 FT%

4. Vince Carter, NJN
While he dipped significantly in points last year, Carter was still a stud in boards and assists for a shooting guard, and the fact that he gives you nice threes and assists makes him a solid pick. In a year in which the Nets have few other offensive options, he’s in line for a great season if he doesn’t give up or demand a trade.
2008-09 Projections: 23.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.5 3PG, 1.2 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 44.1 FG%, 82.7 FT%

5. Kevin Martin, SAC
Ron Artest’s departure spells major things for Martin, who is a sick free throw producer and smooth scorer. His assists are nothing to write home about, but send your mom a letter about his scoring average last year post-Artest: 28.7 points. Wow.
2008-09 Projections: 24.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 3PG, 1.1 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 45.5 FG%, 87.5 FT%

6. Jason Richardson, CHA
Two things give us pause with Richardson: Larry Brown’s arrival and his poor free throw percentage. If he can shoot 75 percent from the line like he did last year, he’s a steal. If he dips below 70 - his M.O. in years prior - he’s slightly risky.
2008-09 Projections: 20.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.7 3PG, 1.3 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 43.4 FG%, 72.6 FT%

7. Brandon Roy, POR
Roy’s penchant for nagging injuries is one thing holding him back from elite status. The other is that he hasn’t developed a peripheral stat that he excels in other than assist. Portland is loaded so he’ll play the role of the sage floor leader. Results will be mixed.
2008-09 Projections: 20.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 1.0 3PG, 1.2 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 46.7 FG%, 77.7 FT%

8. Stephen Jackson, GSW
40.5. That’s Jackson’s albatross, his field goal percentage. If it weren’t for that, I’d propose to him this preseason. Monster year in the cards with Baron Davis gone and Monta Ellis a tragic victim of moped-on-cement violence.
2008-09 Projections: 20.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, 2.6 3PG, 1.4 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 40.0 FG%, 83.8 FT%

9. Mike Dunleavy, IND
It’s tempting to write off Dunleavy’s abnormal career year. But Jim O’Brien’s system in Indiana will ensure that he will succeed. He’ll lose a little off his stat line as teams focus on him more and Danny Granger takes on an even larger offensive role.
2008-09 Projections: 18.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.0 3PG, 1.0 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 45.8 FG%, 82.4 FT%

10. Michael Redd, MIL
Mo Williams gone, Richard Jefferson in, Michael Redd probably treading water or worse. He’s fading.
2008-09 Projections: 21.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.6 3PG, 0.9 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 43.5 FG%, 84.0 FT%

11. Mike Miller, MIN
I could see a player like Miller struggling in a new environment, but Minnesota is a good spot for him with Kevin Love providing a good passing big man and Randy Foye able to break down a defense off the dribble. If Al Jefferson was a better passer, Miller might have a career year. As it is, he’s a solid mid-round pick.
2008-09 Projections: 17.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.3 3PG, 0.6 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 47.8 FG%, 78.4 FT%

12. Ray Allen, BOS
A huge disappointment last year, Allen might actually provide good fantasy value to those who are patient. If your league contains any owners like me who won’t touch Allen before the 23rd round out of spite, you’ll get a great 3-point and free-throw specialist.
2008-09 Projections: 17.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2.2 3PG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 45.1 FG%, 91.0 FT%

13. Jamal Crawford, NYK
Somebody’s gotta run wild in Mike D’Antoni’s offense, and Crawford has the skills to be a fantasy steal. He shoots with abandon, and that’s not a good thing, but at least he’s a great help in free throws and threes.
2008-09 Projections: 18.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 4.1 APG, 2.0 3PG, 1.1 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 41.5 FG%, 85.0 FT%

14. Richard Hamilton, DET
Is Richard Hamilton underrated or overrated? I say he’s just rated. Fourteenth, to be exact.
2008-09 Projections: 17.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.0 3PG, 1.0 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 48.6 FG%, 82.8 FT%

15. Tracy McGrady, HOU
A liability for reasons I shouldn’t have to go into, McGrady is a major fantasy risk for the upcoming season. But what else is new? If he plays 75 games, you’re in the running for your league title, I bet.
2008-09 Projections: 22.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 6.3 APG, 1.2 3PG, 1.0 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 42.5 FG%, 70.3 FT%

16. Ben Gordon, CHI
When you draft a Derrick Rose, and you make plans to play him extensively, your odd man out might be the undersized two-guard bitching about his contract and situation. Gordon is no sure thing to play for the Bulls all year, and he’ll have to go to a team that lets him chuck at will. Warning signs abound.
2008-09 Projections: 15.7 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.9 APG, 2.0 3PG, 0.7 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 42.2 FG%, 88.7 FT%

17. Leandro Barbosa, PHX
Barbosa will be needed this season, for sure, but with a new coach and possibly a slower offensive system, he might not reach his numbers of a year ago. Those numbers disappointed as it was.
2008-09 Projections: 15.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.9 3PG, 1.0 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 45.2 FG%, 83.6 FT%

18. Manu Ginobili, SAS
Likely to miss six weeks of the season, Ginobili will probably come back and contribute off the bench in a limited role until the playoffs.
2008-09 Projections: 15.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.7 3PG, 1.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 46.8 FG%, 85.0 FT%

19. OJ Mayo, MEM
I so want to lable Mayo a bust, but he might actually be pretty good. He’s learning quick and he’s one of those guys who is wired to be an NBA player. He’ll have some big games, but Memphis will get blown out a couple of times per week.
2008-09 Projections: 15.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.0 3FG, 1.3 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 40.8 FG%, 75.0 FT%

20. Anthony Parker, TOR
Solid if unspectacular, Parker is a fantasy stopgap, an occasional end-of-the-lineup guy to plug in when needed. He’ll contribute a little bit everywhere in a fantasy-friendly offense.
2008-09 Projections: 13.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.7 3PG, 1.1 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 46.9 FG%, 82.5 FT%

The Next 10
21. J.R. Smith, DEN
22. Ronnie Brewer, UTA
23. Mickael Pietrus, ORL
24. Raja Bell, PHX
25. Ricky Davis, LAC
26. Rodney Stuckey, DET
27. Rudy Fernandez, POR
28. Delonte West, CLE
29. DeShawn Stevenson, WAS
30. Larry Hughes, CHI

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