Rotowhine’s 2008 Fantasy Football Mock Draft, Mach I, Part I

Jeff and Greg flip the pigskin around for their first NFL mock fantasy draft, and not a moment too soon. With both of their baseball seasons careening into a dark chasm, the colicky couple need to be pacified, and fast. Neither of them have done a stitch of research for this draft, but they both believe that gives them a strategic advantage. Who the hell can predict anything in football? Not these two, but that’s not going to stop them from trying.

Picks based on a standard league starting 1 quarterback, 2 running backs, 2 receivers, 1 tight end, 1 kicker and 1 team defense.

ROTOWHINE 2008 FANTASY FOOTBALL MOCK DRAFT, ROUNDS 1-5

ROUND 1

1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Jeff: I assume Tomlinson is still the best guy this year. Even though his ‘07 stats weren’t up to his standards, they were still rather great. It is tempting to take Tom Brady here, but that seems a bit predictably unpredictable, if you know what I mean. Since I can’t think of anything else to add about LaDainian, can I mention that my guys have been caught stealing what seems like 27 times in the last three days? My catcher was caught stealing tonight, just to rub it in.

2. Adrian Peterson, MIN
Greg: As I fall into the abyss of my NL-only league, I yearn for football. Ok, I’ve gotten past my yearning. It’s now a pining and it will soon be a hankering. But this Peterson fellow is capable of ridiculous things, such as a 2000-yard season and 15-20 touchdowns. And there’s no way that Chester The Molester Taylor can ruin it for him, is there? Have I mentioned that my best player by far this season, Juan Pierre, was just placed on the DL and will be out 4-6 weeks?

3. Tom Brady, NE
Jeff: Has supplanted Derek Jeter and perhaps even Hugh Hefner as The Guy All Guys Would Most Like To Be, but he still hasn’t supplanted Tomlinson and Yo Adrian in fantasy circles. I don’t think Tom is complaining. How he ever even thinks about football is beyond me, but then again I’m the kind of guy who would cut short a historic and inevitable presidential run, eschewing all that I’ve worked for and ruining my marriage, if Scarlett Johansen ever hinted via email that she had a crush on me. While it is likely that Mr. Brady won’t be as sick statistically as he was last year, never underestimate the fury of a Patriot scorned. I don’t want to be the guy who passed on Tom if he uses the Super Bowl loss as motivation and somehow tops his outlandish 2007 campaign.

4. Randy Moss, NE
Greg: Moss was somewhat disappointing down the stretch of the ‘07 season, but still managed to shatter land-speed records for wide receivers. With Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Stanley Morgan and Harold Jackson in the fold, Tom Brady still has a plethora of options from which to choose. Also, remember when Bill Belichick decided to pass on just about every down in the first half of the season, which rendered Laurence Maroney useless? Can’t you see him running Maroney like a plough horse this year? But even with the potential negatives, Moss is clearly the best option at #4. He remains tops in the league at his position, has the best QB at his disposal, and a coach who wants him to succeed.

5. Brian Westbrook, PHI
Jeff: No one really stands out to me as a sure thing here, so I’ll go with the guy I never want who is always amazing. Westbrook, despite occasionally taking a knee at the goalline, racks up fantasy points like few backs in the league when healthy. He’s yet to play 16 games in a season, but he has appeared in 15 in each of the last two. Last year he amassed over 2,100 yards and scored 12 times. If he only scored 13 times, Greg wouldn’t be drinking as much.

6. Joseph Addai, IND
Greg: The preposterous sight of Westbrook taking a knee at the one-foot line was both the funniest and most stupefying thing I have ever seen on a football field. No way that happens to anyone but me. Addai is the pick at #6. He should not only amass 1500-1800 yards on the ground, he should also tally at least 15 TDs. Keith Kenton nor Kenton Keith should steal many of Addai’s carries, except for garbage time ones in the occasional blowout.

7. Steven Jackson, STL
Jeff: Jackson is motivated in a contract year and he’s just 25 years old. A bounce-back candidate if there ever was one, he might drop a little due to his poor 2007 totals held down due to a groin injury that limited him to 12 games. If the Rams are at all improved, especially along the offensive line, Jackson will put up first-round numbers you can be proud of.

8. Larry Johnson, KC
Greg: I’m actually taking the former Knicks and Hornets forward with this pick. He’s a horse and he can step out and shoot the three. Egads, is the football LJ annoying or what? But you know that Herm Edwards will force feed him the ball and he’ll post big yardage and touchdown numbers whether he wants to or not. He suffered a season-ending injury in ‘07, but all that means is that he should have a little more hop in his step for ‘08.

9. Marion Barber, DAL
Jeff: Veteran fantasy football players won’t bat an eye this year when Marion Barber is somehow worse with Julius Jones out of the picture. Apparently Marion III is still going to split carries, this time with rookie Felix Jones, but he’ll be the clear No. 1 back in Dallas. He SHOULD be good, even great, and continue to get a huge percentage of the team’s rushing TDs.

10. Ryan Grant, GB
Greg: This guy came out of nowhere in ‘07 and it seemed as if he broke a long touchdown run every week. He’s somewhat of a gamble, considering the Pack may not have the same success in the passing game to open up the run, but I think it will be worth it. His leash should be long and if he remains healthy and hungry he could end up as the top value pick of the first round.

ROUND 2

11. Clinton Portis, WAS
Jeff: The never-reliable Portis was improbably sturdy last season in Washington and he’ll be the unchallenged workhorse once again behind a good line. Clear No. 1 RBs are becoming scarce, so rolling the dice that Portis can get through another season unscathed is probably worth it at this point.

12. Marshawn Lynch, BUF
Greg: Lynch is one of few backs in the NFL who is not in a time-share situation. The Bills will run early and often and Lynch and his owners will be the happy recipients of these carries, including the ones on the goal line. This is only his second year in the league, so if he is going to be a top tier back, this will be the year he proves it.

13. Frank Gore, SF
Jeff: Gore will be the man again in San Francisco; you just have to decide if that’s a good thing or not. I have a hunch it will be. Gore will be undervalued in drafts, and the Niners have installed a new offensive system run by mad scientist Mike Martz. He’ll find ways to get Gore involved. Now all Frank has to do is stay healthy and we have ourselves a very solid No. 2 RB.

14. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC
Greg: Jones-Drew looks like a fun guy to own, said the moron who hasn’t won a fantasy football league since Cleveland Gary led me to the promised land in ‘93. Jones-Drew looks to remain in a time-share situation with the ageless Fred Taylor, but he should still post huge all-purpose yards. The Jagwires run the ball as effectively as anyone and Jones-Drew is a demon in the passing game. Double-digit touchdowns are also within reach.

15. Peyton Manning, IND
Jeff: In 10 seasons, Peyton has started every game and thrown for over 4,000 yards in all but two years. With 160 straight starts, he needs only 47 more to surpass the number of commercials he appeared in last season. Manning will go earlier than this if you play in a league featuring three or more casual fans. He’s a safe bet in the middle of the second round.

16. Willis McGahee, BAL
Greg: It pains me to write the name of this boob as he has caused nothing but angst for his owners (or owner as in the case of the famed Big Daddy League) since his NFL arrival. But alas, McGahee turned it on in the second half of the ‘07 season and actually produced big time numbers. Can he keep it up is the $64,000 question. My guess is probably not, but as the Ravens’ lone ball carrier, he should be able to rack up 1,300 yards and 10 TDs in his sleep.

17. Terrell Owens, DAL
Jeff: TO showed no signs of slowing down last year, piling up 1,355 yards and 15 scores. Getting up there in years at 35 and intermittently dealing with the dropsies has us just a little worried about Owens, but he’s arguably the No. 2 wideout and there’s no reason to think he won’t hog a lot of the attention from Tony Romo in the Cowboys offense once again.

18. Tony Romo, DAL
Greg: The other half of the Cowboys’ battery looks like a decent bargain at #18. If he can find the time to exorcise himself from his mcsteamy relationship with Jess Simpson, he should again record mid-thirties touchdowns and better than 4,000 yards passing. The other thing that hurts him is his silly need to force feed the ball to the ever-selfish T.O.

19. Reggie Wayne, IND
Jeff: Of the running backs still available, few make me feel comfortable enough to use a second-round pick on. So instead, I’m grabbing the obscenely productive Wayne. The return of 2nd Amendment enthusiast Marvin Harrison to the Colt offense could even help Wayne, and there’s no reason he won’t again challenge for the league lead in receptions and yardage. Double-digit TDs is gravy.

20. Reggie Bush, NO
Greg: Everyone’s mid-first round choice a year ago, Bush is coming dangerously close to being labeled a bust. With Deuce McAllister literally on his last legs and with a top-notch offense at his disposal, it’s now or never for him. I vote for now and can absolutely see 1,600-1,800 all purpose yards and 10-12 touchdowns on the horizon.

ROUND 3

21. Laurence Maroney, NE
Jeff: Owning Laurence Maroney last season was like being shoved into a locker and having my books dumped every day for four years, then bedding the hottest girl in school on prom night. The championships he won for me by having a few great weeks down the stretch are precious memories and thus I’m going to summon up the courage to ask Mr. Maroney to dance again at No. 21. Maroney is the one player with the biggest distance between his ceiling and his floor when healthy. Here’s hoping Hoodie Sweatshirt lets Laurence loose before Week 14.

22. Earnest Graham, TB
Greg: It’s hard to believe that the best running back of all time is available at #22. I can’t imagine how many championships Graham won for his owners as one of the era’s top waiver claims. It doesn’t seem as if he has any competition in Tampa and the Bucs’ offense is better than people think.

23. Braylon Edwards, CLE
Jeff: Can we switch gears in the middle of this and have another NBA Mock Draft? If Baron Davis signs with the Clips, can I draft Monta Ellis No. 1? Please? After your selection of the best running back of all time at #22, I’ll grab the best receiver of all time. Edwards had 16 touchdowns last year, and before looking that up I would have guessed around 43.

24. Carson Palmer, CIN
Greg: A disappointment last year, but Palmer has the arm, the smarts and the weapons to post 30+ touchdowns in ‘08. If a motivated Ocho Cinco is back in the fold along with his partner in crime T.J. Houshmandzadeshouzmadehnah, the defensively-challenged Bangles will be airing it out like nobody’s business. How about Monta Ellis at #1, Stephen Jackson at #2 and the new Warrior point guard at #3.

25. Jamal Lewis, CLE
Jeff: Lewis is surprisingly just 29 years old, but has logged a lot of miles on his frame. A few years ago he was the biggest bust going but he’s been a quiet bargain in Cleveland. The Browns have a good line and passing game. Lewis is the clear No. 1 guy in Cleveland. It’s a little too good to be true. Time for a random NBA sleeper: Marko Jaric. As the forgotten man in that Memphis-Minny deal, Marko could play 40 minutes a game and put up some 16-9-12s. Until you or I pick him up, that is.

26. Willie Parker, PIT
Greg: Another consensus first-round choice a year ago who has slipped to the middle of the third. Parker is still the man in Pittsburgh and will get 25 touches per game. He may begin to lose some goal line chances, but 1,400 yards and eight touchdowns are reasonable goals. Jaric was the only guy last year to go from forty minutes a game to eight. We should go with the winner of the Mo Williams/Ramon Sessions point guard battle in Milwaukee. One of them will be the real deal.

27. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
Jeff: Re: Parker: Watch for a split with Rashard Mendenhall. Re: Jacobs: Watch for Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw to go bananas as is their wont. Jacobs is a tantalyzing talent who should score a lot more, but his propensity for injury irks us to no end. Still, he has to be considered a quality No. 2 RB if he plays most of the year. Could you imagine an Arenas-Ellis backcourt in Golden State? My shooting elbow is throbbing just thinking about that scenario.

28. Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ
Greg: If Jacobs goes down in the preseason, I swear I’m taking Bradshaw in the first round. How good is he in real life? Twenty eight is a nice spot for Fitzgerald, who could easily be the league’s #2 receiver behind Moss. If he can get on the same page with Delta, Delta, Delta charter member Matt Leinart, another 100-catch, 1400-yard season with double-digit TDs is within reach.

29. Selvin Young, DEN
Jeff: Travis Henry was waived bye-bye and it appears Young will slide into the No. 1 back position in Denver. Of course, we know that things are never this simple in the Bronco backfield, and Young will have to deal with someone named Ryan Torain and the bone-chill-inducing Michael Pittman as his primary backups. There’s no way that Young carries it on every down, but if he is the man, say, 70 percent of the time with goal line touches, he shouldn’t fall beyond this spot.

30. Steve Smith, CAR
Greg: Before Jake Delhomme went down in ‘07, Smith was on his way to perhaps the best season of his career and would have rivaled T.O. and Fitzgerald in total fantasy points. With Delhomme appearing more and more healthy following Tommy John surgery, Smith could revert to form. Keep in mind that this is a receiver who held his own last season with Vinny Testaverde under center.

ROUND 4

31. Marques Colston, NO
Jeff: For the first few weeks of 2007, it seemed like Colston (and all Saints) were going to be a bust. By the end of the year, Colston was performing on par with the top receivers in the league week in and week out. If he plays at a high level throughout the season - and there’s no reason to think he won’t - he’ll provide No. 1 receiver value.

32. Andre Johnson, HOU
Greg: If Johnson could only stay on the field there is no telling what he could do. In nine games last season he posted 60 catches for 851 yards and eight touchdowns. If I do the math correctly, that prorates to about 3,000 yards and 42 touchdowns. Well, maybe not, but when in uniform, Johnson is one of a handful of #1 receivers the league has to offer.

33. Rudi Johnson, CIN
Jeff: Before last season’s injury-plagued debacle, Rudi Johnson could be counted on for close to 1,400 yards and a dozen scores like clockwork. Rudi is back healthy, motivated and scheduled to resume his role as the lunch-pail RB in Cincy’s offense. The opportunistic Kenny Watson still lurks in the shadows, but this shouldn’t be a committee situation. Rudi should run wild.

34. Brandon Marshall, DEN
Greg: This horse with breakaway speed went nuts last season, amassing 102 receptions for 1,325 yards. He only mustered seven scores, but that’s a number that could easily change. Despite him going into only his third year, he is clearly Denver’s go-to guy and will have solid wideouts Darrell Jackson and Brandon Stokley in support. Jay Cutler is continuing to improve and this could prove to be one of the most lethal combinations the NFL has to offer.

35. Drew Brees, NO
Jeff: Did you know that Drew Brees actually had more yards and TDs last year than in 2006? His picks spiked, so if he can control that you are looking at one of the league’s top gunners and a surefire No. 1 fantasy QB. There may be a few weeks where Brees kills you, but for the most part he is a stat machine capable of offering excellent value if you don’t want to pick a QB in the first few rounds.

36. Chad Johnson, CIN
Greg: I’d like to think that ol’ eight-five will be more motivated than ever following his falling out with Marvin Lewis and Bengal management. Fortunately, that kind of stuff often doesn’t translate to the field, where he should continue to remain in the neighborhood of 100 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. It seems like he will be in uniform come training camp and there will not be a shortage of news stories on the subject.

37. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN
Jeff: How dare you pick Johnson over the criminally under-appreciated T.J. Houshmandzadeh. That’s right, I demand arrests and at the very least fines or the chair for anyone who doesn’t sufficiently appreciate this receiver. His 112 receptions tied for the league lead and while he barely averaged 10 yards a catch he got in the end zone 12 times. He’s also in a contract year. Last year Housh had only two TDs in the second half of the season, so if he can put two monster halves together this year, watch out.

38. Torry Holt, STL
Greg: Holt is as sure a thing as a night with one of the Spears sisters. Playing on one leg following offseason knee surgery, he still managed nearly 1,200 yards and seven TDs in ‘07. This fantasy hall-of-famer turns 32, but he has a lot left in the tank and could revert to his 1,300-yard, double-digit touchdown ways. A healthy Marc Bulger would also help.

39. Darren McFadden, OAK
Jeff: The Raiders are expected to showcase McFadden early and often, and while he’s likely to be quite inconsistent the payoff could be big. Splitting time with Justin Fargas is a probability, but McFadden’s big-play skills and blazing speed should translate into occasional huge weeks. This might be a nerve-wracking guy to have, but at this juncture the other options aren’t slam dunks either.

40. Antonio Gates, SD
Greg: There are only five or six reliable tight ends and Gates is still the best of the lot. If he and Phillip Rivers are healthy at the same time he should revert to 1,100-yard, 10-touchdown form. If you’re in a league with the famed Uncle Vito from the Myung Cha Greatest League, look to Jason Witten since “Ben” Gates will be off the board in the first round.

ROUND 5

41. Derek Anderson, CLE
Jeff: Mr. Anderson has a chance this year to prove his ‘07 was no fluke. The Browns have the weapons around him to succeed, including new receiver Donte Stallworth to go with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow. Fantasy owners would love for him to cement himself as a trusted starter for years to come. If he succeeds this season, he may even become a homeowner in the greater Cleveland area.

42. Michael Turner, ATL
Greg: The thought of Turner getting 20-25 carries per game has me foaming at the mouth. Despite the grotesque imagery, this behemoth has arguably been a real life top five back, but has been stuck in neutral behind LDT. Now in Atlanta, he will lose some carries to Jerious Norwood, but Turner should get the ones at the goal line. As it is, we’re looking at a decent #2 back and he is a Norwood injury away from being among the elite.

43. Ronnie Brown, MIA
Jeff: True, Brown is coming off a bad knee injury. But I don’t care. He could be standing next to me while I take an aluminum bat to both of his knees at once and I’d still be deathly terrified of him next season. Before tearing his ACL seven games into ‘07, Brown ran for 602 yards and four scores. You do the math. I’ll do the whining. The year before, when I had him, Brown was sure to never enter a game without 25-pound weights in each of his shoes. Reports out of Miami are that he is ahead of schedule rehabbing his torn ACL and will be ready for the start of the season. The Fins won’t lean on him too heavily, but once he gets a head of steam he could be back to his old self. Which could either be his terrible 2006 self or his superb 2007 self. To quote Frankie Valli: “Ronnie, oh Ronnie, Ronnie, you’ll never know…”

44. Edgerrin James, ARZ
Greg: I want no part of James, but as we enter the middle of the fifth round, this isn’t a bad pull. If you can get more than 1,200 yards and seven TDs out of your #3 running back you’re doing pretty well and those were James’ totals last year. Many of us knew his Indianapolis numbers were fraudulent, but he is a halfway decent football player. The swirl down the turlet with starting running backs begins with James.

45. Wes Welker, NE
Jeff: You can count on the Patriots throwing three-yard curl patterns to Welker on nearly every down. He led the league in receptions last year and I’d be shocked if he didn’t repeat. He was a little inconsistent but he did have eight TDs and some monster yardage games. He’s Brady’s binky, meaning he’s worth at least a mid-fifth round pick.

46. Jason Witten, DAL
Greg: This big oaf totaled 96 catches for 1145 yards and seven touchdowns in his breakout ‘07 campaign. The Cowboys’ clear #2 man, his hands are invaluable to Tony Romo as Terrell Owens drops about a third of the passes that are on target to him. It is doubtful that Witten will match last year’s numbers, but he could come pretty close.

47. Matt Forte, CHI
Jeff: Lo and behold, another starting running back. This one is a second-round pick who is the Bears’ No. 1 guy out of the blue now that Cedric Benson has been released. Benson and his negative yards per carry won’t be missed, but it remains to be seen if another biped can find holes along this line. Take a shot with Forte, he sounds like one of those guys who will be good when you least expect it. Adrian Peterson is still here to back Forte up and hopefully confuse Uncle Vito in the 17th round at our draft.

48. Anquan Boldin, ARZ
Greg: Hip and toe injuries stymied what looked to be a monster campaign from Boldin in ‘07. With Larry Fitzgerald commanding tons of attention in this pass-happy offense, Boldin should be the recipient of an equal number of balls his way. We can typically count on the Cards playing from behind and both receivers should have huge years.

49. Julius Jones, SEA
Jeff: No fantasy owner in their right mind can envision Julius Jones as one of their starting backs. He’ll fall pretty far because he was so unreliable in a split role the last few years, but he is now the No. 1 guy in Seattle. T.J. Duckett will probably vulture some goal line carries, but this isn’t the worst situation for Jones, who once upon a time was a pretty good fantasy player.

50. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
Greg: Speaking of Jones, the Seahawks will probably be unable to move the ball on the ground, allowing the ever consistent Hasselbeck to do his thing in the air. He tossed 28 TDS with only 12 picks a year ago and fell just short of 4,000 yards. Without the need to give the ball to a more than done Shaun Alexander, maybe Seattle will open up its offense.

Check in next week as Jeff and Greg complete Rounds 6-10 of their mock draft.

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