By Greg Fox
Rotowhine.com Assistant Editor
March 6, 2008
Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.
NL Starting Pitchers #21-40
Last week, The Whine Cellar mistakenly claimed that when it comes to NL starting pitching, the proverbial swirl down the turlet begins at #21. Nothing could be further from the truth as there are a plethora of solid hurlers remaining. These guys are a little more chancy, but when it comes to starting pitching, who isn’t? Chris Carpenter was in everyone’s top three last year, but an elbow injury and subsequential TJ surgery had his owners reeling. And who would have believed that minor league afterthought Kyle Kendrick would carry the Phillies to the postseason?
It’s time we learned to let others feel the devastating effects of a major injury to a star pitcher or the off year such as the one encountered by lollipop salesman Barry Zito that left everyone mystified. If you feel the urge to grab a starter early, repress it and jump all over five-category assassin Ryan Braun. Derek Lowe, Randy Johnson, Hiroki Kuroda, Brett Myers, Bronson Arroyo and yes, Barry Zito will all be there at the ends of your drafts to serve you well, so don’t panic.
Numbers 21-40 aren’t bad, but as Rick Pitino might say, Cy Young isn’t walking through that door.
21. Chad Billingsley, LAD
2007 5×5 Stats: 12-5, 3.31 ERA, 147.0 IP, 131 H, 64 BB, 141 K, 1.33 WHIP
Age:23 (7/29/84)
Despite the fact that last April he looked more like Barbara Billingsley, Chad has terrific stuff and has begun to put it all together. He yields too many free passes for our liking, but with a little more seasoning, he could become an ace.
2008 Projections: 14-10, 3.54 ERA, 187.0 IP, 164 H, 75 BB, 166 K, 1.28 WHIP
22. Oliver Perez, NYM
2007 5×5 Stats: 15-10, 3.56 ERA, 177.0 IP, 153 H, 79 BB, 174 K, 1.31 WHIP
Age:26 (8/15/81)
Perez is impossible to rank because he’ll probably end up either in the top 10 or bottom 10 of the league. His patented fits of wildness have his owners on the verge of a group nervous breakdown, but when he is able to drop that left-handed hammer on a consistent basis he is fun to own. On a Met staff where he is the #4 starter and where he’ll receive plenty of run support, we envision another strong year.
2008 Projections: 14-9, 3.72 ERA, 179.0 IP, 160 H, 78 BB, 172 K, 1.33 WHIP
23. Derek Lowe, LAD
2007 5×5 Stats: 12-14, 3.88 ERA, 199.1 IP, 194 H, 59 BB, 147 K, 1.27 WHIP
Age: 34 (6/1/73)
Since his move to the NL in 2005, Lowe has been as consistent as anyone, posting ERA’s of 3.61, 3.63, 3.88 and WHIPs of 1.25, 1.27, 1.27. Last season when Lowe went to the hill the Dodgers were awful offensively, scoring one run or less nine times. That has to change this year, but don’t expect his numbers to dramatically improve.
2008 Projections: 14-11, 3.80 ERA, 192.0 IP, 195 H, 49 BB, 142 K, 1.27 WHIP
24. Randy Johnson, ARZ
2007 5×5 Stats: 4-3, 3.81 ERA, 56.2 IP, 52 H, 13 BB, 72 K, 1.15 WHIP
Age: 26 (5/31/81)
I swear we’re not nuts with this selection. Take away the ageless lefty’s first and last starts from ‘07 and he was as good as any pitcher in baseball - albeit in a very small sample. The big concern for the Unit of course is health as he is coming off two back surgeries in two years and a career-low 56.2 innings pitched last season. The good news is that his left arm is fine. He won’t give you 200+ innings anymore, but he’ll come at a discount and can still intimidate.
2008 Projections: 11-5, 3.76 ERA, 162.0 IP, 147 H, 40 BB, 155 K, 1.15 WHIP
25. Brett Myers, PHI
2007 5×5 Stats: 5-7, 4.33 ERA, 68.2 IP, 61 H, 27 BB, 83 K, 1.28 WHIP, 21 SV
Age: 27 (8/17/80)
Back in the starting rotation following a successful stint as closer, Myers is primed to be more annoyed than ever as popups leave the yard in the Phillies’ ridiculously small ballpark. Myers possesses terrific stuff and he will get enough run support. This ballpark takes its toll on starters, so we have to hope that Myers can remain mentally tough. Wins and strikeouts abound.
2008 Projections: 14-10, 3.91 ERA, 190.0 IP, 176 H, 69 BB, 175 K, 1.29 WHIP
26. Hiroki Kuroda, LAD
2007 5×5 Stats: Japan
Age: 33 (2/10/75)
Kuroda will be the Dodgers’ #4 starter and you all know how the Whine Cellar feels about Japanese players. He consistently throws in the low 90s and the fact that no one has seen the former Hiroshima Carp will make this veteran extra tough to figure out. Buy with confidence.
2008 Projections: 13-8, 3.62 ERA, 186.0 IP, 178 H, 53 BB, 144 K, 1.24 WHIP
27. Brad Penny, LAD
2007 5×5 Stats: 16-4, 3.03 ERA, 208.0 IP, 199 H, 73 BB, 135 K, 1.31 WHIP
Age: 29 (5/24/78)
The run of Dodgers continues with Penny, who enjoyed probably his finest season in ‘07. For the first time in his career, he started out well and didn’t collapse in the second half. Despite the fact that he unleashes a 96 mph fastball, Penny is not a strikeout pitcher, so he is not higher on this list. A history of arm trouble also has us somewhat apprehensive.
2008 Projections: 12-9, 3.73 ERA, 172.0 IP, 170 H, 53 BB, 126 K, 1.30 WHIP
28. Barry Zito, SF
2007 5×5 Stats: 11-13, 4.53 ERA, 196.2 IP, 182 H, 83 BB, 131 K, 1.35 WHIP
Age: 29 (5/13/78)
Zito pitched miserably on a miserable team last year, but we expect him to rebound in ‘08. His fastball was consistently in the mid-80s and had to rely on his 12/6 curve to get hitters out. His final numbers in ‘07 were disappointing, but he did finish well, recording a 3.33 ERA over the final two months. The Giants offense can’t be any worse and you can buy him on the cheap.
2008 Projections: 13-12, 3.94 ERA, 211.0 IP, 196 H, 84 BB, 147 K, 1.33 WHIP
29. Jeff Francis, COL
2007 5×5 Stats: 17-9, 4.22 ERA, 215.1 IP, 234 H, 63 BB, 165 K, 1.38 WHIP
Age: 27 (1/8/81)
We typically recoil at the thought of adding a Colorado starter, but these aren’t your grandfather’s Rockies. Francis, as well as Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales, could all be value picks this year. Francis is the most polished of the three and he is entering his prime. The ERA and WHIP will leave you a little empty, but the elusive wins and Ks will be there.
2008 Projections: 16-10, 4.29 ERA, 208.0 IP, 226 H, 60 BB, 159 K, 1.38 WHIP
30. Bronson Arroyo, CIN
2007 5×5 Stats: 9-15, 4.23 ERA, 210.2 IP, 232 H, 63 BB, 156 K, 1.40 WHIP
Age: 31 (2/24/77)
If Arroyo could get his ERA against the Washington Nationals to under 30.00 he could have a nice bounce back year. Despite destroying this author’s season in ‘07, Arroyo is a smart and deceptive pitcher with a wide arsenal to get batters out. He has lost some life on his fastball, but he will adjust. Expect numbers somewhere between ‘06 and ‘07 for the rubber-armed right hander.
2008 Projections: 13-13, 4.10 ERA, 212.0 IP, 221 H, 57 BB, 159 K, 1.31 WHIP
31. Ian Snell, PIT
2007 5×5 Stats: 9-12, 3.76 ERA, 208.0 IP, 209 H, 68 BB, 177 K, 1.33 WHIP
Age: 26 (10/30/81)
Snell broke out last year and distinguished himself as one of the league’s better starters. He is a strikeout pitcher, but playing for the Pirates will limit his win total. He tired down the stretch in ‘07, but that was to be expected. A solid year awaits.
2008 Projections: 11-12, 3.90 ERA, 203.0 IP, 200 H, 67 BB, 172 K, 1.32 WHIP
32. Greg Maddux, SD
2007 5×5 Stats: 14-11, 4.14 ERA, 198.0 IP, 221 H, 25 BB, 104 K, 1.24 WHIP
Age: 41 (4/14/66)
Can’t you envision Maddux, at age 67, getting hitters out with that heavy 84 mph whatever-that-pitch-is? One of the all-time greats, Maddux is smart enough to realize that his junk will work best in the NL, and in particular, the cavernous Petco Park. He now gives up tons of hits, but doesn’t beat himself with walks and keeps the ball in the yard. A little more of a decline is on the way, but he’s still worthy of mid-to-late round consideration.
2008 Projections: 13-11, 4.20 ERA, 191.0 IP, 214 H, 26 BB, 102 K, 1.26 WHIP
33. Tom Gorzelanny, PIT
2007 5×5 Stats: 14-10, 3.88 ERA, 201.2 IP, 214 H, 68 BB, 135 K, 1.40 WHIP
Age: 25 (7/12/82)
Like his teammate Snell, Gorzelanny got off to a tremendous start in ‘07, but faded down the stretch. Shoulder soreness in Spring Training has us a bit on edge about the southpaw, but he claims it’s nothing major. Not a bad gamble in the late rounds.
2008 Projections: 12-11, 3.87 ERA, 194.0 IP, 199 H, 64 BB, 134 K, 1.36 WHIP
34. Randy Wolf, SD
2007 5×5 Stats: 9-6, 4.73 ERA, 102.2 IP, 110 H, 39 BB, 94 K, 1.45 WHIP
Age: 31 (8/22/76)
Decimated by arm trouble the past four years, Wolf has not made more than 23 starts since 2003. Hopefully, he’ll be recovered from his latest shoulder surgery and provide a quality left-handed arm for the Padres in spacious Petco Park. No doubt a high risk/high reward pick.
2008 Projections: 11-8, 4.08 ERA, 165.0 IP, 164 H, 67 BB, 142 K, 1.40 WHIP
35. Shawn Hill, WAS
2007 5×5 Stats: 4-5, 3.42 ERA, 97.1 IP, 86 H, 25 BB, 65 K, 1.14 WHIP
Age: 26 (4/28/81)
Like teammate John Patterson, Hill is a young pitcher with loads of talent - but always on the mend. He is coming off surgery to his non-throwing shoulder as well as to his throwing forearm. In Spring Training, he complained of forearm soreness, not what his potential owners want to hear. But we’re confident that whatever you get out of Hill will be good, so give him a try at the end of your draft.
2008 Projections: 10-7, 3.92 ERA, 161.0 IP, 155 H, 46 BB, 130 K, 1.25 WHIP
36. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL
2007 5×5 Stats: 4-4, 4.28 ERA, 82.0 IP, 70 H, 37 BB, 68 K, 1.30 WHIP
Age: 24 (1/22/84)
Jimenez throws gas and could be a nice sleeper for your team. He proved his mettle in ‘07 by pitching very comfortably as a 23-year old in the postseason for the first time. If he can limit his walks he could have a solid year.
2008 Projections: 12-10, 4.34 ERA, 181.0 IP, 167 H, 80 BB, 154 K, 1.36 WHIP
37. Tom Glavine, ATL
2007 5×5 Stats: 13-8, 4.45 ERA, 200.1 IP, 219 H, 64 BB, 89 K, 1.41 WHIP
Age: 42 (3/25/66)
Fresh off a season-ending thrashing at the hands of the Florida Marlins, Glavine returns to Atlanta, where he spent 13 years getting calls six inches off the plate. In all fairness, Glavine has been a remarkable pitcher throughout his career, but the end is almost near. He’ll still get at least 12 wins, but he won’t strike anyone out and his ERA and WHIP will be mediocre at best.
2008 Projections: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 201.0 IP, 224 H, 64 BB, 92 K, 1.43 WHIP
38. Kyle Kendrick, PHI
2007 5×5 Stats: 10-4, 3.87 ERA, 121.0 IP, 129 H, 25 BB, 49 K, 1.27 WHIP
Age: 23 (8/26/84)
This is beyond a guess. Kendrick was phenomenal for the Phils down the stretch in ‘07. But bear in mind that he is a control pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out. His hittableness (look out Meriam-Webster) typically spells doom in the Philly shoebox. He should reach double-digits in wins.
2008 Projections: 11-11, 4.58 ERA, 177.0 IP, 198 H, 43 BB, 81 K, 1.36 WHIP
39. Micah Owings, NYM
2007 5×5 Stats: 8-8, 4.30 ERA, 152.2 IP, 146 H, 50 BB, 106 K, 1.28 WHIP
Age: 25 (9/28/82)
Owings was a pleasant surprise for the D’Backs last season. He enters the ‘08 campaign as their #5 starter and could provide decent value. Shoulder soreness is limiting him in Spring Training so that bares watching.
2008 Projections: 10-7, 4.10 ERA, 165.0 IP, 163 H, 57 BB, 114 K, 1.33 WHIP
40. Manny Parra, MIL
2007 5×5 Stats: 0-1, 3.76 ERA, 26.1 IP, 25 H, 12 BB, 26 K, 1.41 WHIP
Age: 25 (10/30/82)
Stash this talented southpaw on your bench and keep a vigil that he will win a job in the rotation. He is way better than Chris Capuano, Carlos Villanueva and Jeff Suppan and we hope Ned Yost realizes it.
2008 Projections: 6-3, 3.65 ERA, 108 IP, 98 H, 40 BB, 103 K, 1.28 WHIP
Coming Monday (March 10): Jeff Andriesse breaks down American League starting pitchers Nos. 21-40.
