By Greg Fox
Rotowhine.com Assistant Editor
February 28, 2008

Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.

NL Starting Pitchers #1-20
It has been a while since a pitcher could rightfully be referred to by one name, probably not since Pedro was Pedro, but the Johan era has officially begun. Santana already has New Yorkers changing their Poise pads at the thought of him taking the hill every fifth day. But he will no doubt be a first-rounder and it probably doesn’t make much sense to grab someone who will be a powerhouse in four categories that early. Reigning Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, on the strength of his filthy stuff, will follow Santana as the league’s #2 choice. Here’s hoping that his arm doesn’t fall off in ‘08. The third spot in the NL belongs to former Cardinal farmhand Dan Haren. Since he left St. Louis, Haren has turned into one of baseball’s elite starters in Oakland. But as we saw with Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, success in Oakland doesn’t always translate to the NL. Our advice: take five-category infielders such as A-Rod, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun and David Wright before any of the pitchers on this list. They are as sure as sure gets, while these pitchers are as unpredictable as Borat Sagdiyev.

Chris Young, Cole Hamels, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Tim Lincecum and John Smoltz round out the top 10. From #11 through #20 there are plenty of guys who could usurp many of the top 10 guys, including the likes of Pedro Martinez (#11), Ben Sheets (#12), Matt Cain (#13) and Yovani Gallardo (#14). The slow swirl down the turlet begins after the top 20, but there are still plenty of talented arms in which to take a chance on late in your drafts.

Don’t be deterred by career healthy pitchers who suffered a major injury in 2006. They are two years removed from it and probably enjoyed a much-needed respite in 2007 while their wounds healed. Our resident Methusala, Randy Johnson, falls into this category as does Pedro. Johnson brought his mullet back to Arizona last year and pitched less than 60 innings. Although he is 44 years old and has endured two back surgeries in the past two years, he appears healthy and hungry. Most importantly, he still has the stuff to get NL hitters out and he wants nothing more than to get the 16 wins he needs to reach 300 for his career. Pedro has to be the league’s smartest pitcher. I need an explanation as to how he continues to baffle hitters with a fastball that moves at the speed of many pitchers’ changeups. If you’re looking for a few sleepers late in your drafts, start with the Big Unit. After him, look no further than Hiroki Kuroda, Adam Wainwright, Randy Wolf and Franklin Morales.

I’ll have the starting pitcher rankings for Nos. 21-40 next week.

Alright, enough of this blather. Time to get down to business.

1. Johan Santana, NYM
2007 5×5 Stats: 15-13, 3.33 ERA, 219.0 IP, 183 H, 52 BB, 235 K, 1.07 WHIP
Age:29 (3/13/79)
Santana will likely win 20 games with a 2.80 ERA, more than 200 strikeouts and a WHIP of slightly more than 1.00. But what has us frothing at the mouth is the potential for 25 wins, an ERA below 2.00 with equally absurd strikeout and WHIP numbers. Crazy you say? Maybe, but even though he doesn’t throw quite as hard as he did four years ago, the stuff is still there, hitters have never seen him before and he has a presence that will scare the bejesus out of many… particularly the lefties. The sky is the limit.
2008 Projections: 20-6, 2.48 ERA, 220.0 IP, 168 H, 51 BB, 229 K, 1.00 WHIP

2. Jake Peavy, SD
2007 5×5 Stats: 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 223.1 IP, 169 H, 68 BB, 240 K, 1.06 WHIP
Age: 26 (5/31/81)
Peavy put it all together in capturing the Cy Young Award in ‘07. He led the league in everything and dominated from start to finish. The only thing we see stopping him in ‘08 is a potential injury. His violent delivery is going to take its toll on his right arm at some point, but it’s hard to say when it will happen. If healthy, Santana is the only pitcher in the majors we’d recommend taking ahead of him.
2008 Projections: 17-7, 2.86 ERA, 203.0 IP, 163 H, 62 BB, 218 K, 1.11 WHIP

3. Dan Haren, ARZ
2007 5×5 Stats: 15-9, 3.07 ERA, 222.2 IP, 214 H, 55 BB, 192 K, 1.21 WHIP
Age: 27 (9/17/80)
Haren returns to the NL, where he began his career as a reliever with the Cardinals. He has developed into one of the game’s top hurlers and he should be better than ever in a Diamondback uniform. Former Oakland pitchers Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson actually fared better in the AL, but we expect Haren to post terrific numbers for a dynamite Arizona staff.
2008 Projections: 16-8, 2.89 ERA, 217.0 IP, 198 H, 48 BB, 191 K, 1.13 WHIP

4. Chris Young, SD
2007 5×5 Stats: 9-8, 3.12 ERA, 173.0 IP, 118 H, 72 BB, 167 K, 1.10 WHIP
Age: 28 (5/25/79)
It’s almost stupefying that Young, who made NL hitters look foolish all season, finished with only nine wins in ‘07. He allowed the fewest hits per 9.0 innings in baseball last year, primarily because of his funky motion. A back injury slowed him in the second half last season, but don’t let that deter you from grabbing him if he’s available around the fifth round.
2008 Projections: 14-7, 3.24 ERA, 188.0 IP, 143 H, 70 BB, 169 K, 1.13 WHIP

5. Cole Hamels, PHI
2007 5×5 Stats: 15-5, 3.39 ERA, 183.1 IP, 163 H, 43 BB, 177 K, 1.12 WHIP
Age: 24 (12/27/83)
Hamels’ overall stuff is as good as any lefty in baseball, including Santana and Scott Kazmir. Elbow Injuries have limited him through the early part of his career, so he comes as a bit of a risk. If he stays injury free, there is no telling what he could accomplish, despite the little league park in which he’ll pitch half of his games.
2008 Projections: 15-6, 3.31 ERA, 178.0 IP, 151 H, 52 BB, 174 K, 1.14 WHIP

6. Brandon Webb, ARZ
2007 5×5 Stats: 18-10, 3.01 ERA, 236.1 IP, 209 H, 72 BB, 194 K, 1.19 WHIP
Age: 28 (5/9/79)
Webb’s vicious sinkerball delivery and the fact that he’s thrown at least 208 innings each of the past four years scares us into thinking an arm injury is on the way. But until that happens, he remains one of the game’s top hurlers. Temper your enthusiasm on him, but don’t let him fall below the sixth round.
2008 Projections: 16-8, 3.34 ERA, 214.0 IP, 195 H, 69 BB, 176 K, 1.23 WHIP

7. Carlos Zambrano, CHC
2007 5×5 Stats: 18-13, 3.95 ERA, 216.1 IP, 187 H, 101 BB, 177 K, 1.33 WHIP
Age: 26 (6/1/81)
Zambrano is the least mentally tough pitcher in the top 10, but that doesn’t mean that he is not capable of a huge season. He was beyond inconsistent in ‘07 and the fact that he has thrown well over 200 innings each of the past five years gives him red flag status. But he will register plenty of wins and strikeouts and we feel his ERA and WHIP will drop if he doesn’t become so easily rattled.
2008 Projections: 17-8, 3.62 ERA, 206.0 IP, 177 H, 82 BB, 180 K, 1.26 WHIP

8. Tim Lincecum, SF
2007 5×5 Stats: 7-5, 4.00 ERA, 146.1 IP, 122 H, 65 BB, 150 K, 1.28 WHIP
Age: 23 (6/15/84)
NL hitters should consider calling in sick when playing the Giants if Lincecum finds his mark. After being called up last Spring he showed flashes of dominance, but struggled too often with his control. This is a future Cy Young candidate who could break out at any point.
2008 Projections: 13-9, 3.44 ERA, 198.0 IP, 163 H, 79 BB, 202 K, 1.22 WHIP

9. Roy Oswalt, HOU
2007 5×5 Stats: 14-7, 3.18 ERA, 212.0 IP, 221 H, 60 BB, 154 K, 1.33 WHIP
Age: 30 (8/29/77)
For the first time in his brilliant career, we saw a chink in Oswalt’s armour. The Houston ace was very hittable, and as usual, his team tallied few runs. With the addition of Miguel Tejada and the possibility of Oswalt adding a knuckleball to his repertoire, he should be in store for another solid campaign.
2008 Projections: 15-9, 3.38 ERA, 212.0 IP, 215 H, 59 BB, 155 K, 1.29 WHIP

10. John Smoltz, ATL
2007 5×5 Stats: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 205.2 IP, 196 H, 47 BB, 197 K, 1.18 WHIP
Age: 40 (5/15/67)
The sure fire hall-of-famer keeps rolling along and is set for another big year. One of the game’s smartest and mentally toughest players, but has been stretched out too often by Bobby Cox since his return to the rotation in 2005. As long as his shoulder isn’t hanging by a thread, expect more of the same.
2008 Projections: 15-9, 3.35 ERA, 207.0 IP, 205 H, 48 BB, 185 K, 1.22 WHIP

11. Pedro Martinez, NYM
2007 5×5 Stats: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 28.0 IP, 33 H, 7 BB, 32 K, 1.43 WHIP
Age: 36 (10/25/71)
Now two seasons removed from shoulder surgery, Pedro should revert to form. We don’t know how he does it, but with a fastball clocked in the mid 80s and a changeup off of that he still manages to outthink hitters. The Mets will score plenty of runs for him so 15+ wins is not out of the question.
2008 Projections: 14-7, 3.54 ERA, 182.0 IP, 182 H, 46 BB, 166 K, 1.25 WHIP

12. Ben Sheets, MIL
2007 5×5 Stats: 12-5, 3.82 ERA, 141.1 IP, 138 H, 37 BB, 106 K, 1.24 WHIP
Age: 29 (7/18/78)
Ih he could ever put together a healthy season, Sheets would rank up with any starter in baseball. His fastball is consistently in the mid 90s and he possesses impeccable control. Take a crack at the oft-injured one around the ninth round.
2008 Projections: 13-7, 3.52 ERA, 176.0 IP, 168 H, 39 BB, 140 K, 1.18 WHIP

13. Matt Cain, SF
2007 5×5 Stats: 7-16, 3.65 ERA, 200.0 IP, 173 H, 79 BB, 163 K, 1.26 WHIP
Age: 23 (10/1/84)
The baseball gods owe Matt Cain. His horrific 2007 record (7-16) is in no way indicative of his performance. We believe the Giants are the first team in MLB history to average negative runs over his 32 starts. Still just 23 years old, he has a great arm, and with some average run support, should easily record double-digit wins.
2008 Projections: 12-10, 3.63 ERA, 203.0 IP, 181 H, 75 BB, 174 K, 1.26 WHIP

14. Yovani Gallardo, MIL
2007 5×5 Stats: 9-5, 3.67 ERA, 110.1 IP, 103 H, 37 BB, 101 K, 1.27 WHIP
Age: 22 (2/27/86)
The 22-year old phenom will be a little behind after missing most of Spring Training following minor knee surgery in February. Despite a few bumps in the road as a rookie, he proved why he was so highly regarded in the minors. Expect solid numbers across the board, but keep in mind that the Brewers will limit his innings.
2008 Projections: 12-8, 3.53 ERA, 176.0 IP, 160 H, 55 BB, 178 K, 1.22 WHIP

15. Tim Hudson, ATL
2007 5×5 Stats: 16-10, 3.33 ERA, 224.1 IP, 221 H, 53 BB, 132 K, 1.22 WHIP
Age: 32 (7/14/75)
Hudson bounced back nicely in ‘07 following a couple of mediocre years upon his arrival in Atlanta. He won’t get you tons of strikeouts, but this groundball specialist is capable of strong totals in the other key categories.
2008 Projections: 15-10, 3.65 ERA, 215.0 IP, 218 H, 51 BB, 129 K, 1.25 WHIP

16. Aaron Harang, CIN
2007 5×5 Stats: 16-6, 3.73 ERA, 231.2 IP, 213 H, 52 BB, 218 K, 1.14 WHIP
Age: 29 (5/9/78)
Harang has been masterful the past three years, but we’re expecting a bit of a step back in ‘08. He’ll remain one of the league’s more reliable starters and one of the top strikeout guys around. His home run haven of a ballpark and poor team surrounding him could prove to be the biggest negatives.
2008 Projections: 14-12, 3.76 ERA, 218.0 IP, 213 H, 56 BB, 206 K, 1.23 WHIP

17. Ted Lilly, CHC
2007 5×5 Stats: 15-8, 3.83 ERA, 207.0 IP, 181 H, 55 BB, 174 K, 1.14 WHIP
Age: 32 (1/4/76)
The change of leagues made a huge impact on Lilly’s career. Now settled in as the Cubs’ #2 starter, he should be in store for another big year. He probably won’t have the same success as he had in his first go-round in the NL, but another sub 4.00 ERA and WHIP of around 1.25 is likely.
2008 Projections: 14-10, 3.87 ERA, 209.0 IP, 197 H, 60 BB, 172 K, 1.23 WHIP

18. John Maine, NYM
2007 5×5 Stats: 15-10, 3.91 ERA, 191.0 IP, 168 H, 75 BB, 180 K, 1.27 WHIP
Age: 26 (5/8/81)
Maine proved that his strong showing late in 2006 was no fluke. The lanky right hander now has to work on his consistency to be thought of as one of the league’s best. He has a great defense behind him as well as an offense that will score plenty of runs.
2008 Projections: 15-9, 3.82 ERA, 200.0 IP, 182 H, 74 BB, 184 K, 1.28 WHIP

19. Adam Wainwright, STL
2007 5×5 Stats: 14-12, 3.70 ERA, 202.0 IP, 212 H, 70 BB, 136 K, 1.40 WHIP
Age: 26 (8/30/81)
Following a slow start to the 2007 season, Wainwright got it going and was torrid from June on. He was able to successfully make the move from the bullpen to the rotation and proved his durability by tossing over 200 innings. The Cards’ opening day starter, the only negative about him is the dead offense that will unsuccessfully attempt to score runs for him.
2008 Projections: 13-12, 3.72 ERA, 205.0 IP, 201 H, 67 BB, 148 K, 1.31 WHIP

20. Rich Hill, CHC
2007 5×5 Stats: 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 195.0 IP, 170 H, 63 BB, 183 K, 1.19 WHIP
Age: 28 (3/11/80)
We’re a little skittish about Hill this year. He leaves way too many pitches up in the zone and struggled mightily down the stretch in ‘07. With that said, he still has decent command and is devastating against left-handed batters.
2008 Projections: 12-9, 4.05 ERA, 192.0 IP, 181 H, 67 BB, 177 K, 1.29 WHIP

Coming Monday (March 3): Jeff Andriesse breaks down the top 20 American League starting pitchers.