By Greg Fox
Rotowhine.com Assistant Editor
March 13, 2008

Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.

NL Relievers #1-15
The author of this piece is someone whose season was ruined by seemingly every National League closer last season, so forgive me if I seem a bit jaded. Owners seem to pay more for closers as opposed to starters because they are deemed more of a sure thing. But take it from someone who has detached his own retinas over their failures: don’t overspend on a closer.

In real life, Billy Wagner is overrated. He still throws 93-96 mph, but his slider is inconsistent and he doesn’t have a third pitch. He’s also now 36 years old. Trevor Hoffman, ye of the 83 mph fastball, is now 40 and it seems that after 15 years hitters are finally beginning to figure out that most of his deliveries are 70 mph changeups.

Over the past two years, the best finisher in the NL, by far, has been Takashi Saito. Since he parted ways with tag team partner Mr. Fuji, Saito has saved 63 games in 69 chances with an ERA of 1.77 and a staggering WHIP of 0.82. Since he doesn’t have the name of a Wagner or a Hoffman, he will likely still be undervalued, as will Rafael Soriano. The Atlanta closer is the real deal, and if his elbow is healthy will challenge Saito for NL supremacy. Soriano owners should no doubt draft Peter Moylan as insurance.

In draft leagues, unless you get one of the very few sure things (Papelbon, Mariano, Saito, a healthy Soriano) there is no reason to take a closer before the 10th round. Late round NL bargains include the likes of Eric Gagne, Brad Lidge, Brandon Lyon and Brian Wilson. Also keep Francisco Cordero, Manny Corpas and the winner of the Cubs’ closer battle on your radar.

At least I don’t have to type the name Brian Fuentes.

1. Takashi Saito, LAD
2007 5×5 Stats: 64.1 IP, 2-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, 78 K, 39 SV
Age: 38 (2/14/70)
Saitosan makes one long for the days of Strat-O-Matic because his card would have nothing on it. Did he really have a WHIP of 0.72? Who was the last closer to do this, Hoyt Wilhelm? He is 38 and comes into the season with a gimpy calf, but don’t let that deter you from jumping all over him as the first closer selected, Papelbon included.
2008 Projections: 67.0 IP, 2-3, 1.90 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 75 K, 40 SV,

2. Rafael Soriano, ATL
2007 5×5 Stats: 72.0 IP, 3-3, 3.00 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 70 K, 9 SV
Age: 28 (12/19/79)
Soriano is the proud owner of some of the filthiest stuff in baseball. He had some elbow discomfort in the Spring which bares watching, but he appears to be over it. This will mark his first full season as closer following a short baptism in ‘07. Don’t be afraid. As long as he’s healthy, Soriano will succeed in this role, but make sure you also grab Peter Moylan as insurance.
2008 Projections: 73.0 IP, 2-3, 2.46 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 78 K, 38 SV

3. Billy Wagner, NYM
2007 5×5 Stats: 68.1 IP, 2-2, 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 80 K, 34 SV
Age: 36 (7/25/71)
Wagner was in the midst of a phenomenal season when baseball death occurred - he became a member of this author’s team. Despite a horrific final six weeks, he posted strong overall numbers and has done so for what seems like an eternity. Wagner gets exposed at times for being a one-pitch pitcher, but his fastball is still good enough to get the job done. He worked in his slider more last year, but was inconsistent with it. Let someone else fall in love with him in the early rounds.
2008 Projections: 66.0 IP, 1-3, 2.81 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 74 K, 37 SV

4. Brad Lidge, PHI
2007 5×5 Stats: 67.0 IP, 5-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 88 K, 19 SV
Age: 31 (12/23/76)
Lidge gets a chance to revitalize a once-flourishing career as he takes over closing duties in Philadelphia. After losing his job to Dan Wheeler for the second time in two years with the Astros, he got his control issues in order in the second half of ‘07 and was his old dominant self. Minor knee surgery in Spring Training could set him back a bit, but a big season is on the horizon.
2008 Projections: 70.0 IP, 2-4, 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 89 K, 35 SV

5. Francisco Cordero, CIN
2007 5×5 Stats: 63.1 IP, 0-4, 2.98 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 86 K, 44 SV
Age: 32 (5/11/75)
Cordero put together a fine year in ‘07, despite tiring in the second half. He punched out 86 batters in only 63.1 innings of work and ranked second in the league with 44 saves. He won’t have quite as many save chances with the Reds, but they wouldn’t have signed him if he wasn’t healthy.
2008 Projections: 72.0 IP, 3-4, 2.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 87 K, 38 SV

6. Eric Gagne, MIL
2007 5×5 Stats: 52.0 IP, 4-2, 3.81 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 51 K, 16 SV
Age: 32 (1/7/76)
Following a solid start to the ‘07 season with the Rangers, Gagne was brutal in a setup role with Bosox. No longer a flamethrower, he must now use guile to get batters out. A return to the NL is just what the doctor ordered. Milwaukee will win games and Gagne will get saves. But also grab David Riske, just in case.
2008 Projections: 69.0 IP, 2-3, 2.84 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 70 K, 38 SV

7. Manny Corpas, COL
2007 5×5 Stats: 78.0 IP, 4-2, 2.08 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 58 K, 19 SV
Age: 25 (12/3/82)
Corpas supplanted Fuentes in the middle of the ‘07 season and immediately became the next Dennis Eckersley. A hard thrower with outstanding control, he displayed the chutzpah to be successful in this role for as long as he remains healthy. A handcuff to Fuentes wouldn’t be a bad idea.
2008 Projections: 75.0 IP, 2-3, 2.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 59 K, 36 SV

8. Jose Valverde, ARZ
2007 5×5 Stats: 64.1 IP, 1-4, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 78 K, 47 SV
Age: 28 (7/24/79)
Valverde rears back and throws as hard as he can on every pitch and last year it worked out well for him. The league leader in saves with the D’backs, he was traded to Houston in the offseason and will assume ninth inning duties. He has floundered in this role in the past, but he is now bubbling with confidence. A step back is likely, but he should remain effective.
2008 Projections: 71.0 IP, 2-4, 3.03 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 86 K, 37 SV

9. Matt Capps, PIT
2007 5×5 Stats: 79.0 IP, 4-7, 2.28 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 64 K, 18 SV
Age: 24 (9/3/83)
Capps cemented his postion as Pittsburgh closer with a tremendous showing in ‘07. He has allowed only 28 free passes in 163.2 career innings, and has registered better than a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The only problem with Capps is that he is the Pirates’ workhorse and his big inning totals will likely catch up with him at some point.
2008 Projections: 77.0 IP, 3-5, 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 61 K, 36 SV

10. Jason Isringhausen, STL
2007 5×5 Stats: 65.1 IP, 4-0, 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 54 K, 32 SV
Age: 35 (9/7/72)
Isringhausen enjoyed a tremendous ‘07 following hip surgery last offseason. Heading into ‘08, he looks as strong as ever, but the Cardinals could very well be one of the NL’s worst teams. They will score few runs, and until Chris Carpenter comes back their rotation is suspect at best. Keep Izzy in mind in the mid-to-late rounds.
2008 Projections: 67.0 IP, 2-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 57 K, 33 SV

11. Carlos Marmol, CHC
2007 5×5 Stats: 69.1 IP, 5-1, 1.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 96 K
Age: 25 (10/14/82)
If Marmol was the clear choice in Chicago as of this writing, he would probably be top five on this list. His stuff is as good as anyone’s, but has command issues at times. If your draft is in the next few days and you take Marmol, you obviously also need Bobby Howry and Kerry Wood.
2008 Projections: 71.0 IP, 3-2, 2.78 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 95 K, 28 SV

12. Trevor Hoffman, SD
2007 5×5 Stats: 57.1 IP, 4-5, 2.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 44 K, 42 SV
Age: 40 (10/13/67)
The ship is beginning to take on some water, but it has yet to sink. As in the case with Wagner, when this author received Hoffman in the same August deal, Trevor’s career went in the crapper. He blew several key games down the stretch of the ‘07 season, but possesses the mentality to recover. The question is, how does one recover from being unable to throw more than 83 mph? The end could be near, but maybe he has one more good season left in him.
2008 Projections: 57.0 IP, 1-5, 3.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 45 K, 36 SV

13. Brandon Lyon, ARZ
2007 5×5 Stats: 74.0 IP, 6-4, 2.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 40 K, 2 SV
Age: 28 (8/10/79)
Lyon may be the best bargain of the group. He probably won’t go for more than $18 in auction leagues and in straight drafts we’re looking at the late rounds. And what we have on our hands is a sound closer, who has been in this position before, and who is on a terrific team. Health is always an issue with Lyon and you will no doubt need to handcuff him to Tony Pena. His owners will be more than satisfied with his production.
2008 Projections: 71.0 IP, 2-3, 2.94 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 42 K, 32 SV

14. Brian Wilson, SF
2007 5×5 Stats: 23.2 IP, 1-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 18 K, 6 SV
Age: 26 (3/16/82)
Following a successful career with The Beach Boys, Wilson lands in San Francisco as its closer. He took over the role last August and made the most of it, compiling six saves in seven chances. He has closer stuff, but is a member of a porous team that probably won’t put him in a position to record 40 saves… but you never know. This could be a late-round steal.
2008 Projections: 74.0 IP, 1-3, 3.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 64 K, 31 SV

15. Chad Cordero, WAS
2007 5×5 Stats: 75.0 IP, 3-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 62 K, 37 SV
Age: 26 (3/18/82)
Cordero was inconsistent last season and has been on the brink of being traded for much of the past year. Not for the feint of heart, Cordero seems to always pitch himself in trouble, but has the poise to get out of it. Perhaps the Marlins situation is a better option than considering Cordero… it’s a close call.
2008 Projections: 74.0 IP, 2-5, 3.25 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 60 K, 30 SV

Coming Monday (March 17): Jeff Andriesse breaks down the Top 15 American League relievers.