By Greg Fox
Rotowhine.com Assistant Editor
February 21, 2008
Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.
NL Outfielders #16-30
This week we’ll tackle the second group of National League outfielders ranked 16-30. For the Top 15 NL Outfielders, click here.
As your fantasy and rotisserie drafts enter the middle rounds and beyond, remember that there will be a smorgasbord of talent remaining at the outfield position. As a noted whirling dervish of anxiety at my own NL rotisserie draft, I implore you to wait on outfielders. After Lance Berkman at #6, we can throw about 30 names in a hat and have an equally good a chance of success with any of them. Don’t let the names Victorino, Bourn, Kemp, Hermida and Fukodome scare you. They are all going to be somewhat undervalued and all have a chance to help your offenses across the board. Beware of major injury risks such as Josh Willingham (herniated disk in back), Ken Griffey (myriad ailments) and Moises Alou (rickety bones), but don’t completely discount them. Young guns Lastings Milledge, Justin Upton and Nate McLouth could provide decent five category numbers at the ends of your drafts. Time to make the doughnuts…
16. Corey Hart, MIL
2007 5×5 Stats: .295, 86 R, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 23 SB
Age:26 (3/24/82)
Not only does he wear his sunglasses at night, Hart is one of the league’s few 20/20 men. At 6′6″ he is going to be prone to slumps, but he has terrific all-around tools and hits in a key spot in a tough Brewer lineup. Having Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder behind him is a nice bonus.
2008 Projections: .273 BA, 86 R, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 20 SB
17. Shane Victorino, PHI
2007 5×5 Stats: .281 BA, 78 R, 12 HR, 46 RBI, 37 SB
Age: 27 (11/30/80)
The speedy Hawaiian was on pace for nearly 60 steals when a calf injury put the kibosh on his season. When he returned, he found a blistering hot Jayson Werth occupying his position. Victorino will re-claim his starting job in right field and produce terrific numbers, but with his style of play, he is bound to land on the DL at some point.
2008 Projections: .284 BA, 89 R, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 43 SB
18. Jason Bay, PIT
2007 5×5 Stats: .247 BA, 78 R, 21 HR, 84 RBI, 4 SB
Age: 29 (9/20/78)
Following three strong years to begin his career, Bay took a big step back in 2007. Always prone to the strikeout, Bay didn’t disappoint in this category, but also hit way below his career average and drew 43 fewer walks from the previous season. He’ll still hit cleanup for the Pirates, but it’s a lineup that is not much to speak of. A better season looms, but how much better we’re not sure.
2008 Projections: .278 BA, 87 R, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 8 SB
19. Jeremy Hermida, FLA
2007 5×5 Stats: .296 BA, 54 R, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB
Age: 24 (1/30/84)
Just when we all thought Hermida was a bust, he got his career back on track with a stellar finish to the ‘07 season. With Miguel Cabrera gone, Hermida could find himself batting either third or fourth for the Marlins. The talent is there for him to become a star. He’s still a year or two away, but expect solid totals in ‘08.
2008 Projections: .279 BA, 90 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 8 SB
20. Kosuke Fukudome, CHC
2007 5×5 Stats: Japan
Age: 30 (4/26/77)
The Whine Cellar loves Japanese players, and when it comes to Fukudome, we’re looking at a polished all-around performer. He will likely bat behind Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez in the Cubby lineup, rendering him with all kinds of RBI opportunities. Expect solid but unspectacular numbers from him.
2008 Projections: .296 BA, 85 R, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 12 SB
21. Matt Kemp, LAD
2007 5×5 Stats: .342 BA, 47 R, 10 HR, 42 RBI, 10 SB
Age: 23 (9/23/84)
We’ll assume that Joe Torre is still sensible and gets this freak of nature in the lineup on a daily basis. Kemp’s combination of power and speed ranks with anyone’s. The question is, what can he do with 600 plate appearances? Our guess is that he will be beyond streaky, but when he is on a roll, look out below.
2008 Projections: .288 BA, 73 R, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 20 SB
22. Michael Bourn, HOU
2007 5×5 Stats: .277 BA, 29 R, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 18 SB
Age: 25 (12/27/82)
Bourn parlayed a mediocre stint with the Phillies into a trade and starting gig with the Astros. The 25-year old speedster will give Houston great defense in center field and will probably enter the year as its leadoff hitter. That alone should be good for at least 30 steals before the team realizes that he is not much of an on base threat. If you need steals, this is not a bad guy to grab in the late rounds.
2008 Projections: .274 BA, 87 R, 4 HR, 41 RBI, 36 SB
23. Aaron Rowand, SF
2007 5×5 Stats: .309 BA, 105 R, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 6 SB
Age: 30 (8/29/77)
Thanks to plenty of cheap numbers last season in Philly, Rowand put up career highs in several categories. He now goes to one of the league’s toughest parks in San Francisco, but he remains a solid ballplayer. The batting average, home runs and RBI should drop, but expect him to run more. A solid season is on the horizon for the gritty center fielder.
2008 Projections: .285 BA, 79 R, 17 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB
24. Mike Cameron, MIL
2007 5×5 Stats: .242 BA, 88 R, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 18 SB
Age: 35 (1/8/73)
Cameron has something to prove after being suspended for the first 25 games of the season after testing positive for a banned substance. Don’t let this deter you as this four category man should return with a vengeance, while batting sixth in a tough Milwaukee lineup. His overall numbers will be down, but prorate them accordingly. The move out of Petco will be huge.
2008 Projections: .267 BA, 68 R, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 17 SB
25. Pat Burrell, PHI
2007 5×5 Stats: .256 BA, 77 R, 30 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB
Age: 31 (10/10/76)
Maybe Burrell finally figured it out. All we know is that this once-promising hitter was close to being out of the league last June. If he doesn’t get mired in a prolonged slump, he should surpass the 30-homer plateau. He still works out tons of walks and absolutely destroys the Phils’ number one foe, the Mets.
2008 Projections: .261 BA, 78 R, 32 HR, 94 RBI, 0 SB
26. Nate McLouth, PIT
2007 5×5 Stats: .258 BA, 62 R, 13 HR, 38 RBI, 22 SB
Age: 26 (10/28/81)
For a small guy, McLouth possesses a surprising combination of power and speed. He hit his stride down the stretch of the ‘07 season and has sleeper written all over him. Enters the ‘08 campaign battling Nyjer Morgan for a starting job, but we fully expect him to play against righties.
2008 Projections: .276 BA, 79 R, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 27 SB
27. Ken Griffey Jr., CIN
2007 5×5 Stats: .277 BA, 78 R, 30 HR, 93 RBI, 6 SB
Age: 38 (11/21/69)
Junior enjoyed a bit of a resurgence last season, appearing in his most games since the 2000 season. An abdominal strain ended his season a few weeks early, but he still racked up nice power numbers. Injury risks don’t come any greater, but he is still productive when in the lineup. It’s hard to believe that the “kid” is 38 years of age.
2008 Projections: .275 BA, 77 R, 28 HR, 83 RBI, 4 SB
28. Randy Winn, SF
2007 5×5 Stats: .300 BA, 73 R, 14 HR, 65 RBI, 15 SB
Age: 33 (6/9/74)
Winn keeps rolling along, despite being stuck in the heart of a despicable lineup. He isn’t going to wow you in any category, but he has amassed double-digit homers and steals six consecutive seasons. In ‘07, he batted .300 for the second time in his career. He is steady as they come and deserves a look in the latter rounds.
2008 Projections: .282 BA, 76 R, 13 HR, 66 RBI, 17 SB
29. Lastings Milledge, WAS
2007 5×5 Stats: .272 BA, 27 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 3 SB
Age: 22 (4/5/85)
This is a bit of a reach, but Milledge does have the potential to be a solid regular. The problem is that the Nationals have so many options, one prolonged slump could send him to the minors. But the former Met’s power/speed combo is enough to warrant late-round consideration.
2008 Projections: .267 BA, 72 R, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 14 SB
30. Willy Mo Pena, WAS
2007 5×5 Stats: .253 BA, 42 R, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB
Age: 26 (1/23/82)
This could end up being a ridiculous choice, but Willy Mo has monster power and is expected to bat in the middle of the Nats’ order in their new ballpark. If you can handle the mediocre batting average and strikeouts, he should set career highs in homers and RBI.
2008 Projections: .262 BA, 73 R, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 5 SB
Coming Monday (Feb. 25): Jeff Andriesse breaks the top 15 American League designated hitters.
