By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
March 10, 2008

Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.

AL Starting Pitchers #21-40
Drafting American League pitchers is a dicey proposition. If fantasy baseball was your childhood, AL Pitchers 21-40 would be strangers with candy on Halloween. There’s some scrumptious sweets on this list, but always the chance you’ll bite into a razor blade. And you look like an idiot in that Chewbacca costume.

I’m frightened by a lot of the names on this list. Starting pitchers is the most volatile group in fantasy, with the most injury risks and the most luck involved in a key category (wins). This is a tough list to put together. Most likely a half-dozen or more guys not listed here will emerge as fantasy options as the year goes on. When you draft you have to take into account tons of factors such as injury risk/reward, depth of your staff based on your previous picks, potential run support, divisional opponents’ offenses and your league rules. As many of these guys will go in the late rounds of a standard mixed 5×5 draft, we’re wont to grab the high reward fellers and eschew the mediocre low risks. There will always be some starters to pick up on waivers if Rich Harden, for example, can’t get out of his first start without every ligament in his body failing him. Speaking of Rich…

21. Rich Harden, OAK
2007 5×5 Stats: 25.2 IP, 1-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 27 K
Age: 26 (11/30/81)
Harden should eventually pitch enough in a given season to help a fantasy team or two. Why not this year? Ok, maybe he isn’t close to a sure thing, and maybe he’s working with a new delivery that could mess him up for a while… but wouldn’t you want to have him if he takes off? The possibilities are endless with Harden, good or bad. Negative points for pitching on Oakland, a team that should struggle rather mightily this year.
2008 Projections: 148 IP, 10-9, 3.56 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 159 K

22. Dustin McGowan, TOR
2007 5×5 Stats: 169.2 IP, 12-10, 4.09 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 144 K
Age: 25 (3/24/82)
McGowan is a nice sleeper candidate and would probably be ranked higher if he wasn’t in the AL East. He was decent in every category and should keep improving ever so slightly. He’d be a good back-end mixed-league starter to throw out there against the right matchups.
2008 Projections: 178 IP, 13-11, 4.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 154 K

23. Kelvim Escobar, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: 195.2 IP, 18-7, 3.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 160 K
Age: 31 (4/11/76)
Escobar appeared to move into the upper echelon of starters last year, putting up numbers as good or better than 90 percent of the hurlers out there. Trouble is, he’s probably out until May with shoulder soreness that Escobar attributes to his workload last year. None of this looks good. That said, he could be a nice late-round option for those who play in leagues with conservative drafters. Escobar won’t put up an 18-7, 3.40 season, but if he is completely healthy, by, say, June 1, you can prorate that into a nice second half.
2008 Projections: 148 IP, 12-8, 3.96 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 124 K

24. Andy Pettitte, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: 215.3 IP, 15-9, 4.05 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 141 K
Age: 35 (6/15/72)
Pettitte will still get his share of wins on a Yankee staff that needs him to be a rock. He is declining though, and that WHIP is ugly. The Roger Clemens/Mitchell Report distraction can’t help, either, but Pettitte is a pro who will take the ball and work his ass off every fifth day. We’ll see if he has a lot left in the tank at 35.
2008 Projections: 207 IP, 16-11, 4.29 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 133 K

25. Matt Garza, TB
2007 5×5 Stats: 83.0 IP, 5-7, 3.69 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 67 K
Age: 24 (11/26/83)
Tampa thought enough of Garza to trade Delmon Young for him, and he could pay off as a low-end bargain in ‘08. Garza has nice stuff but is still too wild. A 1.54 WHIP just ain’t gonna cut it. With a tough division and having never thrown a full workload at this level, keep expectations to a minimum and hope for the best.
2008 Projections: 174 IP, 11-11, 3.99 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 153 K

26. Joba Chamberlain, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: 24.0 IP, 2-0, 0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 34 K
Age: 22 (9/23/85)
Chamberlain is an interesting case heading into the season. He has a lot going for him - but the Yankees’ plan to open the season with him in the bullpen for an undetermined amount of time. That said, as a setup man he was amazing last year and can still help a fantasy team here and there from the ‘pen. The law of averages says his ERA and WHIP would rise (how could they not?) once he moves to the rotation, but he is a tantalizing flame-thrower with insane upside. And if Mariano Rivera gets hurt, look out.
2008 Projections: 119 IP, 9-4, 3.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 128 K

27. Mark Buerhle, CWS
2007 5×5 Stats: 201.0 IP, 10-9, 3.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 115 K
Age: 29 (3/23/79)
It was nice to see Buehrle bounce back from an atrocious 2006 and post a very strong ERA. He was really unlucky with only 10 wins though, and he remains a control pitcher with a low K rate. Buerhle should win more, but isn’t a great fantasy option in a 5×5 league.
2008 Projections: 208 IP, 15-11, 3.90 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 117 K

28. Dontrelle Willis, DET
2007 5×5 Stats: 205.1 IP, 10-15, 5.17 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 146 K
Age: 26 (1/12/82)
Willis, coming off a miserable year, moves to Detroit this year in what should be a better situation. He won’t dominate any more, but he should receive more run support than he ever has, making him a fantasy factor again.
2008 Projections: 198 IP, 16-11, 4.47 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 138 K

29. Gil Meche, KC
2007 5×5 Stats: 216.0 IP, 9-13, 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 156 K
Age: 29 (9/8/78)
Meche’s numbers last year are, sadly, about the best you can expect from a Royals starter under any circumstances. Still, he was impressive, enough so that if you want to hold your nose on his low win total, you could end up with a pretty good starter late.
2008 Projections: 214 IP, 8-14, 3.92 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 161 K

30. Jon Garland, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: 208.1 IP, 10-13, 4.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 98 K
Age: 29 (9/27/79)
For some reason we like Garland this year. He’s well-known, but wasn’t on the fantasy radar last season after two straight 18-win campaigns. Garland is in a much better situation with the Angels and a lot will be expected of him. He’ll gobble up innings and should get his share of wins. His one drawback is he wouldn’t average a K per inning in a Little League season.
2008 Projections: 210 IP, 15-12, 4.07 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 108 K

31. Zack Greinke, KC
2007 5×5 Stats: 122.0 IP, 7-7, 3.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 106 K
Age: 24 (10/21/83)
Greinke enters the year entrenched as a starter in Kansas City. Just 24, he could mature at any moment into the star he was supposed to become. Unfortunately, he is a Royal, so any hope for stardom will be severely dimmed. It is entirely possible that Greinke will get it together this season, however. At this point in your draft, why not take a chance?
2008 Projections: 166 IP, 9-13, 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 143 K

32. Jon Lester, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: 63.0 IP, 4-0, 4.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 50 K
Age: 24 (1/7/84)
Lester should get a lot of work this year, especially with Curt Schilling expected to miss much of the year. He started gelling by the end of the year, even finishing with a beauty in the clinching game of the World Series. Lester has trouble throwing strikes sometimes, which jacks up his WHIP. He should be a nice source of wins and K’s, though, and could be a breakout candidate.
2008 Projections: 168 IP, 12-10, 4.13 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 144 K

33. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: 175.1 IP, 7-5, 3.70 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 123 K
Age: 28 (4/8/79)
Guthrie was a big surprise last year, sporting a 2.74 ERA in the first half. He tailed off as the season went on and should come back to Earth. He also pitches for Baltimore, a team with the potential to really struggle. If Guthrie approaches his ‘07 numbers, it’s gravy.
2008 Projections: 186 IP, 11-12, 4.18 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 133 K

34. Boof Bonser, MIN
2007 5×5 Stats: 173.0 IP, 8-12, 5.10 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 136 K
Age: 26 (10/14/81)
Boof disappointed last year and even lost his spot in the Twins rotation. Don’t be fooled - he’s a bounce-back candidate. At this point, the high-end options are off the board and Bonser is someone to consider. If he can harness his plus stuff, he’s a decent strikeout guy. With Johan Santana gone, a spot in the rotation is assured if he can get off to a good start. At just 26, Minnesota is not going to give up on him.
2008 Projections: 185 IP, 12-10, 4.16 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 152 K

35. Shawn Marcum, TOR
2007 5×5 Stats: 159.0 IP, 12-6, 4.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 122 K
Age: 26 (12/14/81)
Marcum has seemed to have found his niche as a middle-of-the-rotation guy for the Blue Jays. If he can keep things going from last year - a decent season someone who only started 25 games - he’ll be a good AL-only option.
2008 Projections: 184 IP, 12-9, 4.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 145 K

36. Joe Saunders, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: 107.1 IP, 8-5, 4.44 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 69 K
Age: 26 (6/16/81)
Saunders is coming off an inconsistent season for the Angels but has a chance to take a step up in 2008. With Kelvim Escobar starting the season on the DL, Saunders has a golden opportunity to earn a full-time starting job. He’s one of those dreaded “crafty lefties”. Nevertheless, he does have a decent strikeout rate. His walk rate is pretty bad, though. If you believe the Angels are in for a good season, consider Saunders in the late rounds.
2008 Projections: 155 IP, 11-7, 4.29 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 127 K

37. Daniel Cabrera, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: 204.1 IP, 9-18, 5.55 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 166 K
Age: 26 (5/28/81)
Pulling the trigger on Cabrera will test all but those fantasy owners with the strongest of stomachs. If he didn’t possess electric stuff and major strikeout potential, he would be out of baseball. If you look on the bright side, Cabrera can’t possibly be worse than he was last year… um, can he?
2008 Projections: 200 IP, 11-14, 4.88 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 171 K

38. Kevin Millwood, TEX
2007 5×5 Stats: 172.2 IP, 10-14, 5.16 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 123 K
Age: 33 (12/24/74)
Yuck. But Millwood is still the “staff ace” in Texas. The Rangers aren’t very good, and Millwood will continue to make a living as a mediocre pitcher who eats innings and gets knocked around. If he can get his mojo back, he’s draftable. We wouldn’t really trust him.
2008 Projections: 190 IP, 11-12, 4.62 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 148 K

39. Ian Kennedy, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: 19.0 IP, 1-0, 1.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 15 K
Age: 23 (12/19/84)
Kennedy is one of the Yankees’ prized young arms. The only question mark is whether he is going to start. It looks like he is in the rotation to begin the year, but New York has depth and won’t hesitate to send him back to Triple-A for more work, especially if Joba Chamberlain is inserted into the rotation sooner rather than later. Still, a good guy to gamble on this late.
2008 Projections: 114 IP, 7-3, 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 94 K

40. Adam Loewen, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: 30.1 IP, 2-0, 3.56 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 22 K
Age: 23 (4/9/84)
Loewen is supposed to be the real deal. He is coming off minor elbow surgery but enters the year as the No. 3 starter in Baltimore. He has a chance to be pretty good as soon as ‘08, but the lowly Orioles won’t provide much support for him.
2008 Projections: 158 IP, 10-9, 4.10 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 133 K

Coming Monday (March 10): Greg Fox breaks down the Top 15 National League relievers.