By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
March 3, 2008

Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.

Top 20 Starting Pitchers - American League
Shying away from American League starting pitchers in a mixed league is a solid strategy as it is. That Johan Santana and Dan Haren have defected to the NL is even more of a reason to be wary of AL arms. The designated hitter naturally makes any given start by an AL pitcher that much more of a minefield. Things aren’t that bad in the AL West, though. The offenses in that division are rather weak. AL East and AL Central pitchers should be knocked down a peg or two on your cheat sheets. It’s a jungle out there.

We like the Detroit staff for the offensive support they should receive. We are a little wary of the Cleveland duo of Sabathia and Carmona holding up for an entire season of excellence. The injury situations surrounding Francisco Liriano and Rich Harden could make or break the fantasy drafter with the guts to take either. The Yankees and Red Sox are breaking in young starters who could take it to another level at any moment. Even the Royals have a few potential fantasy factors, although you won’t see any of them on this list. Maybe next week, when we break down Nos. 21-40.

1. Josh Beckett, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: 200.2 IP, 20-7, 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 194 K
Age: 27 (5/15/80)
This is an arguable choice, but watching Beckett mow down hitters with the precision, confidence and cold-blooded professionalism of Anton Chigurh in No Country For Old Men this past postseason, we wouldn’t bet against him having the best year of his career.
2008 Projections: 194 IP, 19-5, 3.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 190 K

2. Erik Bedard, SEA
2007 5×5 Stats: 182.0 IP, 13-5, 3.17 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221 K
Age: 29 (3/6/79)
Not only was Bedard positively filthy last year for the O’s, he’s moved to a better situation in Seattle. Better team, better ballpark for him, better everything. It will be hard for him to improve upon his sick numbers in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, but he most certainly should win more games.
2008 Projections: 196 IP, 17-8, 3.20 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K

3. Justin Verlander, DET
2007 5×5 Stats: 201.2 IP, 18-6, 3.66 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 183 K
Age: 25 (2/20/83)
Verlander is just 25 years old. He pitches for one of the most fearsome lineups in baseball. He saw a huge jump in strikeouts last year, more becoming of his 100-mph fastball. Only an injury can derail him from joining the elite fantasy pitchers this season.
2008 Projections: 210 IP, 20-8, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 199 K

4. C.C. Sabathia, CLE
2007 5×5 Stats: 241.0 IP, 19-7, 3.21 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 209 K
Age: 27 (7/21/80)
Sabathia seemed to throw a one-hitter every start last year. He blossomed completely, dominating en route to the Cy Young award. He did throw 241 innings, however, and tired noticeably in the postseason. The Indians might try to limit his workload this year, although they probably can’t afford to. Sabathia will be a great fantasy pitcher, but he might be a bit overvalued and a candidate for an injury.
2008 Projections: 208 IP, 17-9, 3.39 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 184 K

5. Felix Hernandez, SEA
2007 5×5 Stats: 190.1 IP, 14-7, 3.93 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 165 K
Age: 21 (4/8/86)
Hernandez missed a month early in the season with a strained right forearm, then returned and was rather average the rest of the way. His potential for stardom has been well documented. We don’t forget how damn dominant he was before his injury, albeit in a small sample size. Hernandez will get it all together this year.
2008 Projections: 214 IP, 16-6, 3.44 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 197 K

6. John Lackey, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: 224.0 IP, 19-9, 3.01 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 179 K
Age: 29 (10/23/78)
Lackey is as solid a choice as any. He has become a workhorse, pitches for an improved offensive team in a relatively light-hitting division, and continues to provide enough in the strikeout category to make him worth a strong investment.
2008 Projections: 228 IP, 18-10, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 176 K

7. Roy Halladay, TOR
2007 5×5 Stats: 225.1 IP, 16-7, 3.72 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 139 K
Age: 30 (5/14/77)
Halladay has seen his ERA climb in recent years, which might make a few shy away since he doesn’t have a high strikeout rate. He should be an excellent bargain for fantasy owners looking for a horse in the middle rounds. We predict his ERA will come back down towards 3.00.
2008 Projections: 236 IP, 17-7, 3.52 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 148 K

8. Fausto Carmona, CLE
2007 5×5 Stats: 215.0 IP, 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 137 K
Age: 23 (12/7/83)
Carmona was a revelation last year, using his dominant sinker to stymie AL hitters at will. He tired as the year went on, and 19 wins is a lot to ask out of him again, but while he may take a step back in ERA, he will probably improve his strikeout rate.
2008 Projections: 190 IP, 16-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 145 K

9. Scott Kazmir, TB
2007 5×5 Stats: 206.2 IP, 13-9, 3.48 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 239 K
Age: 24 (1/24/84)
A minor scare in spring training - inflammation in his pitching elbow - is not as bad as first thought. He will probably be ready for the season. Looking at his strikeout rate from last year has us woozy, but Kazmir and his electric arm have to be knocked down a few notches because of his propensity for both injury and being a member of the Rays.
2008 Projections: 189 IP, 14-7, 3.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 209 K

10. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: 204.2 IP, 15-12, 4.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 201 K
Age: 27 (9/13/80)
Dice-K has a lot going for him this year, not the least of which is less pressure to perform in front of a glaring spotlight. He’ll know what to expect this year and should benefit greatly from a year under his belt. That said, he has to avoid the big inning this season if he really wants to take off. Even if he continues to struggle he remains a good source of wins and strikeouts.
2008 Projections: 195 IP, 17-9, 3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 190 K

11. Francisco Liriano, MIN
2007 5×5 Stats: DNP - reconstructive elbow surgery
Age: 23 (10/26/83)
How scary is it that the Twins might not have traded their best lefty starter when they moved Johan Santana to the Mets? Liriano’s stuff is that good, and he’ll be one of the key fantasy players in all of baseball this year. If he is healthy, he could very well carry a lucky fantasy geek to his or her title. His 2006 stats are worth repeating: 12-3 in 16 starts with a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 144 K’s in 121 innings. Yowza.
2008 Projections: 166 IP, 13-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 176 K

12. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: 199.1 IP, 19-7, 3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 104 K
Age: 27 (3/31/80)
Wang’s nasty stuff doesn’t quite translate to fantasy gold. He is most valuable for getting the run support of the Yankee offense, making him a good bet to approach 20 wins with a respectable ERA and WHIP once again. He just doesn’t strike guys out.
2008 Projections: 205 IP, 20-9, 3.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 111 K

13. A.J. Burnett, TOR
2007 5×5 Stats: 165.2 IP, 10-8, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 176 K
Age: 31 (1/3/77)
Burnett always had a lot of hype surrounding him with the Marlins, but he has kind of flown under the radar in Toronto. With a stigma attached to him of always being a hair’s-width away from a DL stint, Burnett should come rather cheap in a lot of leagues. He still strikes out more than one per inning, and if he approaches 200 innings (saying a lot, we know), he is one of the better guys to own.
2008 Projections: 177 IP, 14-10, 3.85 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K

14. Jered Weaver, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: 161.0 IP, 13-7, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 115 K
Age: 25 (10/4/82)
After a phenomenal rookie year in 2006, Weaver labored more often than not in ‘07. His strikeout rate dove, his ratio rose and he battled injuries. All of this makes him a decent bargain heading into this season. He’s still got the goods to be a solid starter in the middle rounds of your draft.
2008 Projections: 182 IP, 16-9, 3.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 129 K

15. Jeremy Bonderman, DET
2007 5×5 Stats: 174.1 IP, 11-9, 5.01 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 145 K
Age: 25 (10/28/82)
Bonderman really struggled last year in the second half, turning a promising season into an ugly one fast. He got off to a 9-1 start but had some arm troubles that led to a major collapse. A healthy Bonderman is enticing this season, especially pitching for the Tigers. He’s a great bounce-back candidate who can be had on the cheap this year.
2008 Projections: 199 IP, 17-11, 3.95 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 160 K

16. Joe Blanton, OAK
2007 5×5 Stats: 230.0 IP, 14-10, 3.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 140 K
Age: 27 (12/11/80)
It wouldn’t surprise us if Blanton kept improving and had his best season as a pro in 2008. We’ve always been a little lukewarm on him, due to his low strikeout total and inconsistency. With Dan Haren gone, Blanton is the potential No. 1 starter in Oakland. The A’s should struggle, keeping down Blanton’s wins, but he’s a good mid-round choice.
2008 Projections: 226 IP, 12-11, 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 131 K

17. Clay Buchholz, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: 22.2 IP, 3-1, 1.59 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 22 K
Age: 23 (8/14/84)
Hey, why not? Ok, here’s a reason: the Red Sox will be awfully careful with their prize prospect. Buchholz is too good though, and with Curt Schilling expected to miss much of the season if not all of it, Clay becomes even more valuable. Swing for the fences with this pick.
2008 Projections: 163 IP, 12-5, 3.87 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 151 K

18. Javier Vazquez, CWS
2007 5×5 Stats: 216.2 IP, 15-8, 3.74 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 213 K
Age: 31 (7/25/76)
Out of nowhere, Vazquez was incredible in 2007. His emergence from the grave was surprising. We would be even more surprised if he did it again. He’s 32 in July and hadn’t had an ERA under 4.43 in any of his previous three seasons. He’ll eat innings for you, though, and strike out his share of hitters.
2008 Projections: 229 IP, 14-11, 4.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 197 K

19. James Shields, TB
2007 5×5 Stats: 215.0 IP, 12-8, 3.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 184 K
Age: 26 (12/20/81)
Shields was one of those guys who probably helped a fantasy owner or two win a championship last year. He was good-to-great in every category and won over all but the most hardened skeptics. We’re not ready to anoint him an ace just yet, though, as we are, in fact, the most hardened skeptics. Shields will be solid, but he’ll take his share of lumps.
2008 Projections: 222 IP, 14-11, 3.98 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 180 K

20. Phil Hughes, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: 72.2 IP, 5-3, 4.46 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 58 K
Age: 21 (6/24/86)
At this point among the AL starters, you should be looking to guys like Hughes to fill out your staff. He is just 21 entering the year and already tabbed as the next great Yankee starter. He will certainly experience more growing pains, but the upside is huge.
2008 Projections: 189 IP, 14-8, 4.01 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 163 K

Coming Thursday (Mar. 6): Greg Fox breaks down National League starting pitchers 21-40.