By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
March 17, 2008
Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.
AL Relievers #1-15
Much like a closer has to have the intestinal fortitude to nail down games in the ninth and bounce back from losses like an automaton, fantasy owners across the country have to draft these closers, prepare for a rollercoaster and somehow keep their sanity when the going gets tough. Only a few closers in baseball are dominant enough that you don’t have to worry about them losing their job at any moment, and you probably have to waste a high draft pick to get one. We don’t like to do that. Then again “we” took Brian Fuentes, Tom Gordon and Armando Benitez in the middle rounds of our mixed-league draft last year. Relievers are the most volatile of all picks - and a lot of the league leaders will emerge from the waiver wire.
If you can afford to stash a set-up man on your roster, pay close attention to the following situations in the AL: Toronto, where B.J. Ryan is hoping to be ready by the start of the season after Tommy John surgery and a capable Jeremy Accardo is waiting in the wings; Tampa Bay, where Troy Percival may or may not take the job away from Al Reyes; and Texas, where C.J. Wilson is not 100 percent and could be trumped by Joaquin Benoit or even a mummified Eddie Guardado.
1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: 58.1 IP, 1-3, 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 84 K, 37 SV
Age: 27 (11/23/80)
Papelbon might be a major goofball in real life, but he’s also one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. With a perfect closer’s mentality, and the stuff to match, he is a great bet to finish with a sub-2.00 ERA, a sub-1.00 WHIP and close to 40 saves once again.
2008 Projections: 65 IP, 2-2, 1.77 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 89 K, 41 SV
2. J.J. Putz, SEA
2007 5×5 Stats: 71.2 IP, 6-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 82 K, 40 SV
Age: 31 (2/22/77)
You know Putz is tough - with a name like that, I’m sure he’s been in his share of fights. He also happened to have the best year by any closer in baseball last year. He doesn’t have the fame of Papelbon, Rivera or K-Rod, but he’s every bit as good and may even be available later or for cheaper.
2008 Projections: 70 IP, 4-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 82 K, 39 SV
3. Mariano Rivera, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: 71.1 IP, 3-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 74 K, 30 SV
Age: 38 (11/29/69)
Getting up there in age, it is right to suspect Rivera’s incredible career is winding down. But he has a new contract, looks strong in the spring and pitches for a team that will certainly contend. Rivera had just 30 saves last year, probably a statistical anomaly that will be corrected in ‘08. For the first time in many, many years, Rivera could be undervalued on draft day. We like him third, a millimeter ahead of Francisco Rodriguez.
2008 Projections: 69 IP, 4-4, 2.48 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 71 K, 40 SV
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: 67.1 IP, 5-2, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 90 K, 40 SV
Age: 26 (1/7/82)
K-Rod is still a nasty closer but he’s become more hittable recently. The Angels will still trot him out there without a care, and he’ll challenge for the Major League lead in saves. His unusually high WHIP and ERA last year concerns us just a tad. He’s in a free-agent walk year.
2008 Projections: 72 IP, 3-2, 2.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 39 SV
5. Joe Nathan, MIN
2007 5×5 Stats: 71.2 IP, 4-2, 1.88 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 77 K, 37 SV
Age: 33 (11/22/74)
Nathan should continue plugging along quietly as one of baseball’s top ninth-inning guys. It wouldn’t shock us to see him repeat his excellent totals from a year ago as the Twins will still be good enough to get him the opportunities. He’s clearly one of the more reliable closers in the game.
2008 Projections: 68 IP, 4-1, 2.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 75 K, 36 SV
6. Bobby Jenks, CWS
2007 5×5 Stats: 65.0 IP, 3-5, 2.77 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 56 K, 40 SV
Age: 27 (3/14/81)
Jenks jumped into the top tier of closers last year, sporting a microscopic WHIP and reaching the 40-save milestone for the second-straight year. His strikeout rate plummeted, however, which stings a bit in 5×5 leagues, but overall he is looking like a bargain option once the big names mentioned above are grabbed in the early rounds by over-eager owners at your draft.
2008 Projections: 73 IP, 3-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 67 K, 36 SV
7. Huston Street, OAK
2007 5×5 Stats: 50 IP, 5-2, 2.88 ERA, 0.94 ERA, 63 K, 16 SV
Age: 24 (8/2/83)
With his shaky injury history and propensity to implode, Huston Street officially begins the fall-off on this list. Still, his overall numbers were strong and he’s healthy heading into the season. The A’s will probably struggle, leaving Street’s save totals below what they could be.
2008 Projections: 63 IP, 4-2, 3.03 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 69 K, 32 SV
8. Todd Jones, DET
2007 5×5 Stats: 61.1 IP, 1-4, 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 33 K, 38 SV
Age: 39 (4/24/68)
The Todd Jones Experiment somehow keeps rolling along. While his ERA and WHIP have skyrocketed, he remains an excellent source of saves. With Detroit expected to compete, Jones will get his share. He’s also a candidate to break down or be replaced. Somehow he gets it done. We don’t know how, but you could do a lot worse.
2008 Projections: 64 IP, 0-4, 4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 44 K, 41 SV
9. B.J. Ryan, TOR
2007 5×5 Stats: 4.3 IP, 0-2, 12.46 ERA, 2.54 WHIP, 3 K, 3 SV
Age: 32 (12/28/75)
Ryan’s elbow is a huge cause for concern and the Jays may bring him back slowly. The latest reports are that he is on track to begin the season as Toronto’s closer, huge news considering he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery last May. He’ll be a little rusty, but if he can build momentum and stay healthy he is a candidate to provide excellent late-round value.
2008 Projections: 51 IP, 2-2, 3.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 55 K, 26 SV
10. Joakim Soria, KC
2007 5×5 Stats: 69.0 IP, 2-3, 2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 75 K, 17 SV
Age: 23 (5/18/84)
The Royals may have struck gold with Soria, who was lights out after Octavio Dotel was traded to the Braves. A full year as the Royals closer will likely make Soria a candidate for Bellevue, however. He’ll be fidgeting in the ‘pen waiting for those rare instances when his teammates have gotten him an actual lead to protect through eight innings.
2008 Projections: 70 IP, 3-3, 2.79 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 77 K, 27 SV
11. Joe Borowski, CLE
2007 5×5 Stats: 65.2 IP, 4-5, 5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 58 K, 45 SV
Age: 36 (5/4/71)
If you didn’t look at Borowski’s save total last year, you would think he was one of the worst relievers in the game. He led the AL with 45 saves. Somehow the lucky Borowski is entering the season as Cleveland’s closer again, a situation that bears watching closely. Rafael Betancourt is a much more reliable hurler, and if the Indians can’t take it any more he could usurp Borowski. As it is, you have to consider him a candidate for 40 saves once again.
2008 Projections: 60 IP, 1-6, 5.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 50 K, 36 SV
12. George Sherrill, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: 45.2 IP, 2-0, 2.37 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 56 K, 3 SV
Age: 30 (4/19/77)
Sherrill is the odds-on favorite to close in Baltimore with Chris Ray out for the year. The lefty was successful last season but might find the going tougher in ‘08. The O’s will be bad as it is, so we’d wait to make sure Sherrill indeed beats out Jamie Walker, and keeps the job, before investing too much.
2008 Projections: 62 IP, 2-4, 3.82 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 60 K, 25 SV
13. C.J. Wilson, TEX
2007 5×5 Stats: 68.1 IP, 2-1, 3.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 63 K, 12 SV
Age: 27 (11/18/80)
Wilson had 12 saves in 13 opportunities for the Rangers after Eric Gagne was traded to the Red Sox. He is battling some biceps tendinitis, but should be the closer once the season opens. He is a solid option for saves, although the Rangers won’t be racking up wins this season, hurting his cause.
2008 Projections: 66 IP, 2-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 58 K, 23 SV
14. Jeremy Accardo, TOR
2007 5×5 Stats: 67.1 IP, 4-4, 2.14 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 57 K, 30 SV
Age: 26 (12/8/81)
B.J. Ryan is coming back awfully quick from Tommy John surgery, and Accardo was awfully good last year in his stead. Why rush Ryan? Watch the Toronto situation closely. It wouldn’t shock us if Accardo held on to the job for the time being. Either way, you should own both if you want to wade into this situation.
2008 Projections: 74 IP, 5-3, 2.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 62 K, 18 SV
15. Troy Percival, TB
2007 5×5 Stats: 40 IP, 3-0, 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 36 K, 0 SV
Age: 37 (8/9/69)
Someone has to get the saves in Tampa Bay, and it looks like Percival will get the best shot after pitching very well last year in 40 innings for the Cardinals. He’ll probably split ninth-inning duties with Al Reyes and it would surprise us if he got through a whole year unscathed at his age.
2008 Projections: 55 IP, 2-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 49 K, 19 SV
