By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
February 18, 2008
Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.
AL Outfielders #16-30 - American League
This week we’ll tackle the second group of American League outfielders ranked 16-30. For the Top 15 AL Outfielders, click here.
As your draft winds down, this is the list to have in your hands (along with Greg’s NL guys coming Thursday) - the secondary outfielders who can fill out your roster. What you probably want to know is how deep, exactly, are the outfield options? In other words, how many picks should you spend on infielders early. We always recommend taking care of your middle infielders and third basemen first, and outfielders second. If you think like that, you could end up with a lot of these fellers on your team.
Is that a good thing? It depends. It certainly beats having to reach deep into the shortstop or second base pool because you drafted too many outfielders in the first few rounds. You should still be pretty picky with the outfielders you take late, though. There are more hit-or-miss choices here than you probably feel comfortable with. Let’s sort out the pieces.
16. Jermaine Dye, CWS
2007 5×5 Stats: .254, 68 R, 28 HR, 78 RBI, 2 SB
Age: 34 (1/28/74)
Let’s just come out and say it: Dye sucked last year. After a 2006 that made even the most hardened fantasy owners wobbly at the knees (.315-44-120), he plummeted big time. What to do? At 34 years old, Dye is declining, but he has to be better than he was, at least in batting average.
2008 Projections: .275 BA, 80 R, 30 HR, 88 RBI, 1 SB
17. Josh Hamilton, TEX
2007 5×5 Stats: .292 BA, 52 R, 19 HR, 47 RBI, 3 SB
Age: 26 (5/21/81)
Hamilton finds himself starting in Texas this year, and we could think of a few worse places for the talented pleasant surprise to land. Hey, if he gets a full season’s worth of at bats, we like him a lot as a bargain this year.
2008 Projections: .280 BA, 78 R, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 5 SB
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: .353 BA, 20 R, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 9 SB
Age: 24 (9/11/83)
Ellsbury was electric late in the season and in the playoffs, and he enters the season as the likely starting centerfielder in Boston. The Red Sox haven’t moved Coco Crisp yet, though, so this might not be the slam-dunk sleeper it appears to be. We’re banking on Ellsbury taking off to the point where the Sox can’t afford not to play him all the time.
2008 Projections: .314 BA, 101 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 37 SB
19. Michael Cuddyer, MIN
2007 5×5 Stats: .276 BA, 87 R, 16 HR, 81 RBI, 5 SB
Age: 28 (3/27/79)
Cuddyer fell off a bit last year in homers and RBI, making us raise a few eyebrows. Two to be exact. He could be maxed out, making him nothing more than a late-round pick in ‘08. We think he’s a little better than that and will rebound slightly.
2008 Projections: .290 BA, 80 R, 22 HR, 88 RBI, 6 SB
20. J.D. Drew, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: .270 BA, 84 R, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 4 SB
Age: 32 (11/20/75)
J.D. Drew. There’s not much that hasn’t been written about Drew’s horrible first campaign in Boston, so we’ll look ahead. If you are an optimist, you are thinking the following things about J.D.: That he’s got his “first year in Boston” jitters out of his system, that he had a nice postseason, that he is healthy both mentally and physically. While it appears Drew’s fantasy tools are not what they can be, he will likely improve this season. He still might lose at bats against lefties.
2008 Projections: .286 BA, 90 R, 17 HR, 85 RBI, 6 SB
21. Rocco Baldelli, TB
2007 5×5 Stats: .204 BA, 16 R, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 4 SB
Age: 26 (9/25/81)
The perpetually injured Baldelli is expected to be ready for spring training. He’s also likely to start in center field, meaning we see a sleeper in our future. It might take Baldelli a while to prove that he can play every day, but prepare to draft him late or at least pick him up at the first sign of life.
2008 Projections: .276 BA, 80 R, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 25 SB
22. Johnny Damon, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: .270 BA, 93 R, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 27 SB
Age: 34 (11/5/73)
Damon is really tailing off, and as he enters the season he will probably play DH more than roam the outfield. We could definitely see the aging Damon losing at bats this year as the Yanks will rotate him with Jason Giambi, Shelley Duncan and Melky Cabrera between first base, center field and DH.
2008 Projections: .266 BA, 85 R, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 21 SB
23. Melky Cabrera, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: .273 BA, 66 R, 8 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB
Age: 23 (8/11/84)
Cabrera looks like the starting centerfielder this year and will see a lot of action. He used 2007 as seasoning, putting up average numbers at best in close-to-full-time action. He will probably improve across the board.
2008 Projections: .279 BA, 84 R, 10 HR, 81 RBI, 10 SB
24. Luke Scott, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: .255 BA, 49 R, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 3 SB
Age: 29 (6/25/78)
Here’s a guy who might be pretty good this year. Scott hit his 18 homers in just 369 at bats last year. He finds himself starting for the O’s this year, so a 500-600 at-bat season could produce decent numbers if you are looking for someone to round out your outfield positions. One problem is he may platoon with Jay Payton.
2008 Projections: .264 BA, 75 R, 27 HR, 69 RBI, 4 SB
25. Mark Teahen, KC
2007 5×5 Stats: .285 BA, 78 R, 7 HR, 60 RBI, 13 SB
Age: 26 (9/6/81)
Teahen was supposed to be last year’s sleeper/darling. I took him late expecting a breakout season only to give up on him shortly after. His final numbers were way below what you need from a fantasy outfielder, so it is highly likely Teahen won’t get drafted in many leagues. He does have potential to hit for a lot more power, though, and with double-digit steals again he may become someone to keep an eye on.
2008 Projections: .289 BA, 75 R, 15 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB
26. Jose Guillen, KC
2007 5×5 Stats: .290 BA, 84 R, 23 HR, 99 RBI, 5 SB
Age: 31 (5/17/76)
Guillen is with the Royals now, where he’ll find the going a lot tougher. He’s also suspended for the first 15 games of the season for breaking the substance abuse policy. Another once-relevant fantasy player exiled to Kansas City.
2008 Projections: .273 BA, 58 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB
27. Gary Mathews, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: .252 BA, 79 R, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 18 SB
Age: 32 (7/18/75)
Mathews ended up with tolerable numbers last year if you ignore his batting average. That’s tough to do, and with Torii Hunter in town we aren’t sure of Mathews’ role. He’ll probably share time with Garret Anderson, which makes us nervous.
2008 Projections: .264 BA, 70 R, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 15 SB
28. Adam Jones, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: .246 BA, 16 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB
Age: 22 (8/1/85)
Jones comes over in the Erik Bedard deal and he’s one of the bright young prospects in baseball. Last year in Triple A he hit .294 with 25 home runs and eight steals. He might not start taking off until the second half, but with Baltimore in a youth movement, you have to keep your eye on Jones.
2008 Projections: .261 BA, 69 R, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 12 SB
29. Jack Cust, OAK
2007 5×5 Stats: .256 BA, 61 R, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 0 SB
Age: 29 (1/7/79)
Cust came out of nowhwere to smack 26 homers in 2007. He should play quite a bit in ‘08 as the A’s don’t have a lot of major-league talent in the outfield. Cust will kill you in batting average, though, and doesn’t steal a thing.
2008 Projections: .248 BA, 59 R, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 0 SB
30. David DeJesus, KC
2007 5×5 Stats: .260 BA, 101 R, 7 HR, 58 RBI, 10 SB
Age: 28 (12/20/79)
It is probably foolish to expect much more from DeJesus than he has already shown to provide. The .260 batting average made him close to irrelevant last year, and you want more steals from a leadoff guy. Probably undraftable unless you are feeling quite the hunch heading into the season.
2008 Projections: .277 BA, 90 R, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 11 SB
Coming Thursday (Feb. 21): Greg Fox breaks down National League outfielders 16-30.
