By Jeff Andriesse
Rotowhine.com Editor
January 14, 2008

Each week leading up to the 2008 major league baseball regular season, Rotowhine.com will dissect the top players in both the American and National League at each key fantasy position.

Top 15 First Basemen- American League
Is it me, or is this position getting more shallow by the year? The list of the top American League first basemen devolves into a pile of garbage far quicker than I expected. The result is a list that rivals catchers for scarcity of talent. If you play in a mixed league, keep in mind that the NL has most of the top guys. If you are in an AL-only league, my condolences. You might want to think of grabbing a first-baseman quicker than you normally would. To be frank, there is a lot more fantasy excitement at the middle infield positions. There are two ways to play this. For one, you can take a Justin Morneau or Carlos Pena early (and do you really want to do that?) or you can wait and get a first baseman in the 8-12 range while focusing on other, more top-heavy positions.

1. Justin Morneau, MIN
2007 5×5 Stats: .271 BA, 84 R, 31 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB
Age: 26 (5/15/81)
Morneau fell off rather sharply from his 2006 MVP season thanks to a putrid second half. He was on fire in the first half, so if he can get it together for a full season he’ll resume his place at the top of the first baseman list. The Twins should have a pretty good offense in 2007, anchored by Morneau, one of the game’s best young hitters entering his prime.
2008 Projections: .291 BA, 90 R, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 2 SB

2. Paul Konerko, CWS
2007 5×5 Stats: .259 BA, 71 R, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 0 SB
Age: 31 (3/5/76)
Konerko should bounce back this season after a poor ‘07 by his standards. A comeback would simply mean bringing his batting average back up after it fell 54 points from the year before. I’m putting him second based on his bargain potential even though he would probably be something like the 9th or 10th best first baseman in all of MLB.
2008 Projections: .284 BA, 77 R, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 0 SB

3. Carlos Pena, TB
2007 5×5 Stats: .282 BA, 99 R, 46 HR, 121 RBI, 1 SB
Age: 29 (5/17/78)
Pena has reinvented himself as a swing-for-the-fences slugger, a shocking development to anyone who follows baseball even in passing. His 2007 season should be the thing of legend some day and you can tell your grandkids you witnessed it. There’s no way he approaches what he did again. I, for one, am staying away this year. I see his batting average dipping significantly and his other numbers suffering for it. He’ll still provide power.
2008 Projections: .257 BA, 78 R, 32 HR, 88 RBI, 1 SB

4. Nick Swisher, CWS
2007 5×5 Stats: .262 BA, 84 R, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 3 SB
Age: 27 (11/25/80)
When I drafted Swisher with a late pick last year I was positively bubbling over with excitement, and with good reason. Coming off a 35-homer campaign, the sky seemed the limit. Unfortunately, his career got sidetracked by his mere appearance on my fantasy team and all I can say to Nick is: no offense, it happens to everyone. He’ll rebound nicely in a new situation, unless I take him again. Note: he’ll play center field for Chicago, but has first base eligibility which is far more valuable this season. Another warning: he is likely to bat second for the White Sox, cutting down on his RBI opportunities a bit.
2008 Projections: .265 BA, 95 R, 26 HR, 72 RBI, 4 SB

5. Lyle Overbay, TOR
2007 5×5 Stats: .240 BA, 49 R, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 2 SB
Age: 31 (1/28/77)
Overbay is a good sleeper heading into the season, but we’d be wary of counting on him as a fantasy starter. That he’s the No. 5 guy on this list says volumes about the lack of quality AL first basemen. Overbay struggled through a debilitating hand injury last season. He should bounce back to the level of professionalism we’ve come to expect from him.
2008 Projections: .288 BA, 75 R, 17 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB

6. Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2007 5×5 Stats: .288 BA, 85 R, 16 HR, 83 RBI, 4 SB
Age: 29 (3/15/79)
We’re probably getting to the “he is what he is” stage of Youkilis’ career. He doesn’t wield enough power to be a consistent fantasy contributor and he’s wont to struggle in the second half of a season (he hit .238 in the second half last year). Youkilis won’t hurt you too much - he’s become a nice professional hitter and fantasy corner infielder in deep leagues.
2008 Projections: .290 BA, 89 R, 15 HR, 81 RBI, 2 SB

7. Ryan Garko, CLE
2007 5×5 Stats: .289 BA, 62 R, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 0 SB
Age: 27 (1/2/81)
Garko could be ready to break out in 2008, but a few flags exist. Victor Martinez will vulture some games at first base, keeping Garko’s at bats down. Garko’s also very streaky and was frustratingly unproductive last year, all things considered. Nevertheless, this is a solid hitter entering his prime years. He could make the leap (or at least a leap).
2008 Projections: .279 BA, 66 R, 24 HR, 78 RBI, 0 SB

8. Billy Butler, KC
2007 5×5 Stats: .292 BA, 38 R, 8 HR, 52 RBI, 0 SB
Age: 21 (4/18/86)
Ladies and gentlemen, your No. 8 AL first baseman… Billy Butler! He has the kind of name that feels like a good fantasy one, though, doesn’t he? Butler is actually a nice prospect who, because of his team, will likely hit in the middle of the order. He’s slated to be the everyday first baseman for Kansas City, and at least will be the designated hitter. Even if he isn’t eligible at first right away, it will be just a matter of time. This is an optimistic ranking for the young Butler, but it says more about his peers at the position than it does him.
2008 Projections: .284 BA, 68 R, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 1 SB

9. Richie Sexson, SEA
2007 5×5 Stats: .205 BA, 58 R, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 1 SB
Age: 33 (12/29/74)
Sexson is quickly becoming a fantasy dinosaur. His 2007 season was as bad as it looks on paper. He has to bounce back a little. He could be a cheap source of power for any fantasy owner who feels very comfortable with their team batting average after the first 20 rounds or so of their draft.
2008 Projections: .237 BA, 65 R, 25 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB

10. Casey Kotchman, LAA
2007 5×5 Stats: .296 BA, 64 R, 11 HR, 68 RBI, 2 SB
Age: 24 (2/22/83)
If, like the rest of us, you are still waiting for Casey Kotchman’s breakout, perhaps it will come this year. But this much is clear: this isn’t a major power threat. He could carve out a nice, Kevin-Youkilis-like career from here on out. Not too shabby a late pick, especially if he can establish himself as a .300 hitter year in and year out.
2008 Projections: .299 BA, 72 R, 14 HR, 76 RBI, 1 SB

11. Aubrey Huff, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: .280 BA, 68 R, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 1 SB
Age: 31 (12/20/76)
Huff should be a decent corner infield option this year if he gets full-time at bats in Baltimore. He didn’t get off to a blazing start but his .309 batting average in the second half is hopefully the harbinger of good things ahead. Keep in mind that Huff is now four years removed from his supposed breakout year. He might be plateauing, if that’s a word, from here on out.
2008 Projections: .271 BA, 63 R, 16 HR, 66 RBI, 1 SB

12. Daric Barton, OAK
2007 5×5 Stats: .347 BA, 16 R, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB
Age: 22 (8/16/85)
Barton is a young’un to keep track of as spring training gets under way. If he is named the starting first baseman for rebuilding Oakland - a good possibility - he could be one of the breakout guys at this position. He still has to overcome a lot of A’s for at bats though. He was fantastic in just 72 major league at bats last year.
2008 Projections: .278 BA, 59 R, 18 HR, 62 RBI, 3 SB

13. Ben Broussard, TEX
2007 5×5 Stats: .275 BA, 27 R, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 2 SB
Age: 31 (9/24/76)
If the news that Jarrod Saltalamacchia is indeed the everyday catcher in Texas holds true, Broussard probably becomes a full-time guy for the Rangers. Those expecting Broussard to be a full-time fantasy option are probably being optimistic. Your AL-only options are running low, and fast, however. Consider Broussard, who will get some at bats at DH as well, a late, late pick. He might platoon with Chris Shelton.
2008 Projections: .270 BA, 55 R, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB

14. Shelley Duncan, NYY
2007 5×5 Stats: .257 BA, 16 R, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 0 SB
Age: 28 (9/29/79)
Duncan showed something last year in limited at bats. There could be playing time for him, especially if Jason Giambi breaks down. Giambi may not be eligible at first base in most leagues (at least to start the season), and the Yankees’ situation there is up in the air. Duncan could get a good amount of ABs roaming between first, the outfield and DH. Don’t expect consistency, though.
2008 Projections: .269 BA, 40 R, 15 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB

15. Kevin Millar, BAL
2007 5×5 Stats: .254 BA, 63 R, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 1 SB
Age: 36 (9/24/71)
Millar might start his fair share of games at first for Baltimore, but expect him to keep cowboying down statistically.
2008 Projections: .247 BA, 49 R, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 0 SB

Coming Thursday (Jan. 17): Greg Fox breaks down the Top 15 National League first basemen.