By Jeff Andriesse, Greg Fox & Brad Rysz
August 20, 2008

When is comes to decision-making, Jeff and Greg are simply the best. Nobody makes a decision as decisively, but they do tend to make the wrong one. All the time. In fantasy sports, a split-second decision at a draft can determine an entire season. Stuck in neutral on a bunch of toss-ups heading into 2008, the bungling Keystone Cops of the fantasy world enlisted the help of a fellow who has yet to have his world crushed by an unending string of rotomistakes. Please welcome our newest guest contributor, Brad Rysz.

Brad, a colleague of Jeff’s over at RotoExperts.com, has agreed to join in for some fantasy football coin flipping. We identified 10 pairings of players who will probably be drafted in similar spots in most leagues, and were forced to choose. Unlike Jeff and Greg, Brad knows his stuff so pay attention.

LADAINIAN TOMLINSON VS. ADRIAN PETERSON
Jeff: Tomlinson. I really don’t want the top pick this year because I know I’ll screw it up. Peterson is a threat to gain 250 yards and 3 TDs every week, even against good defenses, but Tomlinson is the choice. The reasons are nitpicking: I like Tomlinson in the passing game a little more, I like San Diego’s offense a little more, and Minnesota has the more established backup in Chester Taylor, who should vulture some carries. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Vikings were a little careful with Peterson, because they can be.

Greg: Peterson. I’m sure I’m in the minority, but Peterson is my choice. LDT is still a tremendous running back and capable of a big year, but he’s had his moment in the sun. At 29 and with lots of mileage on his hooves, he has only one way to go but down. I envision plenty of Charger blowouts and an inordinate amount of big runs out of human fire hydrant Darren Sproles. How aggravating would that be for LDT owners? Peterson has no ceiling. Defenses are going to keep 42 men in the box against him, but the combination of the Vikes’ big offensive line and his silly talent will be enough for him to approach 1,800 yards on the ground and at least 15 TDs.

Brad: Tomlinson. This is one of those “you can’t go wrong” picks but if I had the choice I’d take LaDainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson has played at least 15 games every season that he has been in the league. Peterson played 14 games last season and has a history of injuries the past few seasons. Another reason is the significant difference each player has in their respective teams passing schemes. LT had 60 receptions and 475 receiving yards last season compared to Peterson’s 19 receptions and 268 receiving yards. I’ll take the player who gets more opportunities to touch the pigskin every time.

CLINTON PORTIS VS. MARSHAWN LYNCH
Brad: Lynch. Not only is Marshawn Lynch hilarious, but he’s my choice over Clinton Portis. Lynch used his rookie season to prove that he belonged in the “league” and the Bills are apparently ready to unleash Lynch in every facet of their offense. I’d expect his passing totals to at last double last year’s total of 18 receptions and his carries should be well over 300. Portis is no slouch and is still relatively young, but Indiana Jones said it best when he claimed, “It’s not the years, honey, it’s the mileage.” Portis has taken a beating over his six seasons and it will catch up to him eventually. Lynch is a much safer bet to have a healthy, productive season.

Jeff: Lynch. These are two backs who should get a large majority of their teams’ carries, but I’m going to go with Lynch by a hair over Portis. There isn’t enough history with Lynch yet, and too much with Portis. While Portis has played in at least 15 games in three of the last four years, he’s still an injury risk, and one who has barely averaged four yards per carry behind a supposedly strong Redskin line. Lynch is a young, eager thoroughbred who will relish the punishment at his young age. Lynch is the choice, although I like both to get drafted near the end of the first round and to be using a walker by age 37.

Greg: Lynch. Portis has been on my excrement list since I gobbled him up with the fourth pick of my ’05 draft. He is 27 going on 45 and last I checked Ladell Betts is still alive and earns too much money to not get some of the work. Despite his new offensive coordinator and him flying up draft boards, I wouldn’t touch CP until the third round. I didn’t see much of Lynch, but he is one of very few backs in the league who is going to receive all of the touches. He is apparently improving as a pass-catcher and should also get goal line carries. So let’s see… no contest.

CARSON PALMER VS. DREW BREES
Greg: Palmer. I like Brees, I really do, but the 30 dumpoffs per game have to stop. He has a terrific receiving arsenal at his disposal, but at times seems afraid to use them. With that said, he should still be a solid but possibly unspectactular choice as a QB1. I really like Palmer. He is oozing with talent and has better and hungrier weapons than Brees, including Olympic Silver Medalist in the 200m breaststroke, Chad Johnson. The Bengals often play from behind, which is a good thing for Palmer, but they also like to air it out when in front. Most importantly, Brees may be gone as early as the third round, while Palmer can probably be had in the fourth or fifth.

Brad: Brees. Drew Brees and it’s really not that close in my mind. Brees is the rich kid at school who had all the shiny new toys before everybody else. Reggie Bush is a fantastic receiver for a running back and those short, slant patterns rack up the yardage for Brees. The addition of Jeremy Shockey gives Brees yet another big red zone target. Colston is a beast and Devery Henderson is the downfield target all quarterbacks wish they had. If that wasn’t enough, second year wideout Robert Meachem is healthy and ready to contribute. Carson Palmer has the injury to Chad Johnson to deal with and the dilemma of having to be the quarterback for the most dysfunctional, non law-abiding team in the league.

Jeff: Brees. The addition of Jeremy Shockey puts Brees above Palmer in my eyes. His weapons are that much better with Reggie Bush out of the backfield and Marques Colston deep. Brees actually had a tremendous year in ‘07, albeit one with a high amount of interceptions. If he brings those down he’ll one of the best QBs. Palmer will put up big numbers with those wide receivers, but the Bengals play in a tougher division and don’t have a pass-catching RB in out of the backfield.

TERRELL OWENS VS. REGGIE WAYNE
Jeff: Owens. As he does every year before the draft, Owens is slipping in the minds of fantasy owners. I got him in the fourth round last year in one of my drafts. Wayne is everyone’s darling. But Owens still has another great year in him. The Cowboys have a now or never attitude and Owens’ red-zone ability puts him a hair over Wayne. Reggie will rack up more catches and yards, but T.O. will get those elusive TDs. If he solves his case of the dropsies, even better. Both guys are early second rounders.

Greg: Wayne. The 34-year old Owens is still a game breaker, but what has happened to his hands? What was Roberto Duran’s nickname in the ring? Manos de Piedros? (hands of stone for those of you who don’t understand Latvian). At some point, Tony Romo and Bum Phillips Jr. are going to get tired of forcing the ball to T.O. and begin to spread it out. Wayne has become the clear go-to guy in Indy and having Marvin Harrison back should only help. He is as consistent as they come, he plays home games in a dome and is officially on the same page with one of the top QBs of all time. Wayne is the call.

Brad: Wayne. I may be a little biased due to my undying hatred for TO, but I’ll grab Reggie Wayne. With the injuries to Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne has firmly established himself as Peyton Manning’s go-to receiver. That’s a very good thing for Reggie Wayne. Wayne’s receptions have increased every year for the past seven seasons. No doubt that Owens will have his share of huge games but the week-to-week consistency that Wayne produces is rare among wide receivers. Wayne didn’t have less than six points any week last season while TO had 5 weeks under four points.

BRET FAVRE VS. ELI MANNING
Brad: Favre. Give me Favre. It has nothing to do with the fact that Eli looks like he is going to cry 100% of the time either. Trust me. Favre has a better set of receivers around him and a better offensive line. Last season Favre threw for over 4,100 yards compared to Manning’s 3,300. Manning’s weekly inconsistencies are enough to drive any owner crazy and it’s enough for me to quickly grab Favre ahead of Manning every time.

Jeff: Manning. This is a tough call, but I’m going with Eli. I think he’s going to show a little more maturity this year, be a little more relaxed and put up solid numbers. Favre, however, is a candidate for Bellevue and the hospital has made special preparations for his arrival in the New York area. I could see him really pressing this year in a potential bad-fit situation. I think Favre has the potential for more yards and TDs, but also more interceptions.

Greg: Favre. When Favre retires after the ’08 season for the fourth time, at his final press conference Mike Schmidt should be invited and they should have a weep-off. Despite the beyond annoying retirement announcements and the fact that he would have no problem saying eff you to his beloved Green Bay fans and playing for the hated Vikings, he is still a tremendous QB with another good year or two left in him. With the solid Laveranues Coles and studly Jerricho Cotchery on the receiving end, a season of 25 TDS and 3,700 yards is within reach. Manning’s career Venn Diagram took a dramatic turn upward following an inspirational playoff performance in ’07. He should remain a solid QB the remainder of his career, but for the foreseeable future, the Giants will employ a run-first offense. Favre is the choice.

WILLIE PARKER VS. LENDALE WHITE
Greg: Parker. Nobody on this or any other planet last season liked LenDale White more than myself. I jumped on him in both of my leagues and he did a nice job, amassing 1,000 yards and seven TDs as a middle-round pick. As an obvious LenDale expert, I’d steer clear this season until at least the sixth round and for several reasons: Second-year man Chris Henry is waiting in the wings; talented rookie Chris Johnson is already being talked about as the RB of the future; and I don’t think Titans management is overly enamored with the often out-of-shape USC product. Last year, Parker was in everyone’s first round. He only recorded two TDs, but that’s a fantasy football thing and not an indication of his real performance. He still topped 1,300 yards, he remains one of the quickest back out there and still runs behind a top offensive line. Rookie Rashard Mendenhal may steal his goal line carries, but Parker is the clear choice.

Brad: White. I’m a big believer in LenDale White this season. 1,300 yards from Willie Parker last season was nice, but TWO touchdowns? Sorry, that’s unacceptable. LenDale may be fat, and he may fumble a lot, but he has the backing of his coach, the opportunity to carry 300+ times this season, and the first chance at goal-line carries. Word out of Pittsburgh is that rookie Rashard Mendenhall will take a handful of carries away from Fast Willie, including goal-line duties. Again, take the player with more opportunities to score.

Jeff: White. Impressive rookies are champing at the bit to take over for Parker and White. Rashard Mendenhall is more of a candidate to steal touchdowns from Parker than Chris Johnson is from White, so I’m going with White. Simply put, he’ll get the goal line carries. Parker’s role in the red zone is still very up in the air.

TJ HOUSHMANDZADEH VS. CHAD JOHNSON
Jeff: Johnson. I like Johnson this year. He’s got so much going against him that he’ll probably be better than ever. I’m not sure its as easy to predict who will get the red zone looks with these two as it appears. Housh is the bigger target and has outscored Johnson 21-15 in the last two years, but that’s not enough to make it more than an anomaly. Johnson is explosive and motivated.

Greg: Johnson. I can’t go with a guy who abbreviates his first name when his last name is Houshmandzadeh. They are both top-flight receivers, and despite his recent shoulder injury, I’m going with Ocho Cinco. Johnson has commanded much of the attention both on and off the field the past few years, allowing Housh to shine. Now that Housh has cemented his status in the league, he will have the same respect on the field, thus opening things up for Johnson a bit more. The Whine Cellar is always big on guys who seem hungrier than ever to succeed and Johnson fits into this category.

Brad: Houshmandzadeh. Well if you asked me this question a few days ago I might have chosen Chad, but the injury to his shoulder is enough to pull a 180 and take Houshmandzadeh. Housh had 112 receptions last to go along with 12 touchdowns. He is clearly Carson Palmer’s preferred receiver and while Chad is on PTI challenging Michael Phelps to a race, Housh is perfecting his chemistry with Palmer. Ocho Cinco is much more of a homerun threat and in the end their numbers will be similar, but the weeks in which Chad disappears aren’t worth the 2-3 weeks that he explodes each season. Give me the consistency.

SANTONIO HOLMES VS. HINES WARD
Brad: Holmes. Santonio Holmes is primed to be the next big thing in the wide receiver world. Holmes has yet to eclipse the 1,000 yard mark but it’s all but a guarantee to happen this season. Ward his slowly but surely declined in production each season and he his receiving yards have decreased for six straight seasons. I’ll take the player with the higher upside and someone who is clearly Big Ben’s top target. In two preseason games this season Holmes has caught both of Roethlisberger’s touchdown passes.

Jeff: Holmes. Ben Roethlisberger is in for a huge year so both of these guys will be good. Ward is getting up there in age and Holmes is at that point where young WRs go from good to great. The offense is there for him to make the next step, so I’m taking Holmes as the first WR from Pittsburgh. Ward won’t be a slouch, but he’s more doubtful to play a full season.

Greg: Holmes. This one is a no-brainer. In real life, I would go to war with Hines Ward in two seconds. But in the world of fantasy football, Ward is who he is - a 32-year old sure-handed receiver who will get you 900 yards and eight touchdowns. The sky is the limit for the speedy Holmes, who developed great chemistry last season with Ben Roethlisberger. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are throwing more and Holmes is the main beneficiary. If healthy, a 1,200-yard season with 8-10 touchdowns is within reach.

LAVERANUES COLES VS. JERRICHO COTCHERY
Greg: Cotchery. What on earth were parents in the 80s thinking with these first names? The Jets just need to sign Devard Darling to have quite the troika. Cotchery has shown signs of becoming a big time receiver and that was with Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens under center. With Brett Favre calling the shots I have to go with Cotchery, primarily because of his enormous upside. Like Hines Ward, you know what you are going to get with Coles. He’s the safe route, but Cotchery’s potential is too big not to take a chance on.

Brad: Cotchery. Similar to Holmes, Cotchery is the up and coming receiver taking receptions away from the savvy veteran. Coles was banged up last season and did catch 55 passes in 12 games with six touchdowns, but he’s never caught more than seven TDs in a season and there’s no reason to suspect that will change now. I’d compare him to Donald Driver and Cotchery to Greg Jennings when it comes to how Favre will treat his receivers. Coles will catch more balls but in the red-zone Cotchery will be targeted more often. And if I’ve learned anything in my life, it’s that touchdowns are the key to fantasy football.

Jeff: Cotchery. Coles is the bigger name, but Cotchery is going off my draft board first. His two touchdowns last year are deceiving. He should at the very least get 5-7, making him much more valuable than he seems. With Brett Favre in town, both guys will see an increase in value. Favre will enjoy the younger, blossoming Cotchery over Coles, by a fraction.

ANTONIO GATES VS. JASON WITTEN
Jeff: Gates. Witten was the top tight end in football last year and essentially acts as the No. 2 receiver in Dallas, a role that shouldn’t change in ‘08. Gates has a toe injury that has a lot of people concerned about his health entering the season. Thinking Witten will tread water at best, and possibly come back a few pegs, I still have Gates ranked ahead of him on my TE list. I’m not sure either will provide good value in the draft, and I’m more inclined to try to get Kellen Winslow a round or two later.

Greg: Gates. If Gates is healthy and moving well in the Chargers’ final preseason game, I have to go with him over Witten. San Diego now has two other major receiving weapons in Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson, so single linebacker coverage will be enough for Gates to revert to ’05 form. I also love Witten, but the underrated middle-rounder of a year ago may soon turn into an overvalued third-rounder. For those of you in leagues with Uncle Vito, expect the 1-2 punch of Witten and “Ben” Gates to go in rounds one and two.

Brad: Witten. Wow. Really tough call. I’ll take Jason Witten, but only because of injury concerns. Witten caught a miraculous 96 balls and compiled over 1,145 yards last season. Romo obviously prefers Witten in high-pressure situations and you can expect his seven touchdowns to increase as Romo becomes more comfortable with the offense. There is troubling news out of San Diego that Gates’ toe injury may of the nagging variety and nobody wants to hear that. Fantasy football is won and lost on the injury list so it’s important to make safe choices early and take some risks near the end of your draft. Since both of these players will be gone early I’ll go with Witten.