By Greg Fox
Rotowhine.com Assistant Editor
Oct. 3, 2008
Now that my baseball and football seasons have gone the way of the banking industry, it’s time I turn my attention to the one subject that I have supreme confidence in: marshmallow candy. But before I educate you on this subject, it would probably be a good idea to mention the top 10 players who should be avoided during your fantasy basketball drafts. And maybe not so much avoided as dropped down in your rankings in both points and percentages leagues.
It amazes me how fantasy football continues to grow in popularity as one has to predict the unpredictable. There’s just no sense of order. I don’t know about you, but losing games to the bevy of knuckle-draggers who think they’re brilliant because they stepped in horse maneur by taking LDT in the first round and Frank Gore in the second simply infuriates me. But I’ve gotten much better at dealing with this and not just because I’ve started the season 0-4.
In fantasy basketball, justice typically prevails. As overrated as he is in real life, we all know that Vince Carter is going to average 24.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists this year. Same goes for Allen Iverson, Tracy McGrady and the other numbers hounds in the league. The McGrady-Ming-Artest troika in Houston should be interesting. Question is, will Rafer Alston still be the best fantasy guard there is? I jest, but only slightly.
Anyway, here are the Whine Cellar’s choices for the players who should be avoided on draft day.
10. Ben Wallace PF/C Cleveland
This fantasy hall-of-famer has officially seen better days. He is still capable of the occasional 15-rebound, 5-block, 3-steal game, but they are now few and far between. The one thing that Wallace has working in his favor is that he will remain a major part of a power forward/center rotation that currently only includes Anderson Varejao and an aging Zydrunas Ilgauskas. I won’t even mention Wallace’s lack of scoring and beyond pathetic free throw percentage. Don’t completely write Big Ben off, but he belongs in the middle rounds of your drafts.
9. Mike Miller SF Minnesota
One of the premier 3-point shooters in the league, Miller could be the victim of a surprisingly deep T’Wolves squad in 2008-09. Despite his starting status, he will be engaged in a constant struggle for minutes at the two and three spots with Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants and Rodney Carney. This will either lead to him reverting to his ‘monster 06-07 production or coming back to earth with more modest totals. Our guess will be more pedestrian numbers, in the range of 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and nearly 2.0 threes per contest. Not bad, but 9th-round numbers at best.
8. Paul Pierce SF Boston
Pierce validated what has been a terrific career with a legendary playoffs that led to a Celtic title in 2007-08. But let’s not confuse the fact that he was a disappointment from a fantasy perspective in the regular season and that’s all that matters here. Pierce saw most of his totals fall off dramatically, primarily due to the preposterous amount of Boston blowouts. Now 31, The Truth will be rested on a more regular basis. Oh, and his passion for taking it hard to the hole and getting to the foul line that has been his signature, now only exists in crunch time and playoff games. Take a powder on him until at least the fourth round.
7. Andrea Bargnani PF Toronto
The sight of Bargnani’s mug shot makes me cringe as I actually had him as a breakout candidate a year ago. I don’t know why. I watched him closely in a playoff series against the Nets in his rookie year and all he did was chuck up threes with no conscience for 40 minutes a night. I guess it was the fact that he was actually getting 40 minutes and hitting a couple of those threes and blocking a few shots that had me fooled. But fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice and finish below Mex in the standings. Stay away… stay far, far away.
6. Al Harrington PF Golden State
Because he is a 3-point shooting power forward, Harrington has some value. But other than his ability to deposit long range jumpers, he will frustrate his owners to no end in just about every other category. Taking a Don Nelson-coached player is never a safe bet, particularly when that player isn’t fully committed on the defensive end. Harrington may cause his owners to look like geniuses in week one, but they will bemoan the 8-minute, 2-point, 2-rebound performances that will soon follow from the inconsistent Warrior.
5. Pau Gasol PF/C Los Angeles Lakers
Gasol should be in store for a terrific year from a real-life perspective and the Lakers should be the favorites to win the whole enchilada. But a la Boston in 2007-08, Laker fans should prepare for a never-ending supply of blowouts, severely limiting the minutes of the starters. Marc’s older brother will also have his production cut into by the presence of Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom and a seemingly healthy Andrew Bynum. You won’t see Kobe on this list because he’ll figure out a way to get his bawdy numbers and Odom somehow never sees a statistical drop, regardless of circumstance. Gasol will be hurt the most by the team’s star power.
4. Kevin Garnett PF/C Boston
The man who led the Celtics to their best season since the height of the Bird era also destroyed his fantasy owners with a dreadful 2007-08. A consensus first-round selection, Garnett regularly finished with 13 points, 7 rebounds and 1 block in 23 minutes of work. How his final numbers were as good as they actually were is astounding because I don’t think I can recall a single double-double after the month of November. Character and leadership are terrific qualities in a professional athlete, but for fantasy purposes, I’ll take the selfish guys. Let someone else scoop him up in the early rounds.
3. Shawn Marion SF/PF Miami
The valley of the sun was the perfect destination for the Matrix, where his flawed offensive game was well concealed. Now in Miami and without Mike D’Antoni, he will have to come to the forefront and be more of a scorer, something he may not be comfortable doing. His numbers last year as a member of the Heat don’t lie - 14.3 points, 11.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.9 steals and 0.9 blocks - still outstanding, but no longer a top five pick in your drafts.
2. Ray Allen SG Boston
Egads, Allen was a shell of himself during the 2007-08 regular season, averaging 17.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game, far off from his totals in Milwaukee and Seattle. He resurrected his game with a more aggressive brand in the playoffs and was a key contibutor in the Celts’ championship run. Jesus still plays with a chip on his shoulder, but now 33 and after having proved himself in the playoffs, another quiet year is on the horizon. Lower your expectations and hope he falls to the eighth round.
1. Mo Williams PG Cleveland
Let’s for a second forget the fact that LeBron will be in complete control of the Cadaver offense. Is Mo Williams really a better real-life point guard than Delonte West? Won’t Daniel Gibson and Sasha Pavlovic also log important minutes? Williams is a solid ballplayer, and as we saw in Milwaukee, he can do it all from a fantasy perspective. But Cleveland is a fantasy graveyard for all guards and small forwards, just ask Larry Hughes and the incumbents. A season of 12.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists and a steal is a reasonable goal for Williams, but don’t expect much more than that.
