By Greg Fox
Rotowhine.com Assistant Editor
Oct. 18, 2007
The crack staff at Rotowhine has relied on its great instinct, superior intellect and a Ouija board to come up with its top five breakout candidates for the 2007-08 season.
1. Randy Foye
(2006-07 Stats: 10.1 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.8 apg, 43% FG, 37% 3-pt, 85% FT, .07 spg, .03 bpg, 1.9 to)
It would be shocking if Foye wasn’t a fixture in the T-Wolves starting five for the next decade. The Villanova product combines his terrific all-around skills with good horse-sense and an NBA body. Without Kevin Garnett, Foye should be able to thrive, while providing a terrific one-two punch with Al Jefferson. His rookie season averages will likely have him going in the middle rounds. His scoring, three-point and free throw numbers will rise dramatically and his shooting percentages should remain solid. He played at least 27 minutes in 10 of the T’Wolves final 12 contests last season and averaged 37.5 minutes in the last two. If he’s available in the eighth round, grab him.
‘07-08 projection: 17.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.2 apg, 45% FG, 1.3 3-pt fg, 85% FT, 1.1 spg, 0.3 bpg, 2.5 to
2. Andrea Bargnani
(2006-07 Stats:11.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.8 apg, 43% FG, 37% 3-pt, 82% FT, .05 spg, .08 bpg, 1.7 to)
In the mold of Mehmet Okur, but with much less of a conscience, Bargnani could become one of the top 10 fantasy centers in the league if he qualifies. Despite a shot selection reminiscent of Ticky Burden’s, last season’s #1 selection knocked down better than 1.5 threes per game and shot 37 percent from long distance. The Italian Clydesdale averaged 11.6 points and only 3.9 rebounds, but only played 25.1 minutes per game. In his final three playoff contests against the Nets, he played at least 40 minutes in each and averaged 17.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.0 3-pointers. Bargnani will rebound better as he continues to get stronger and will be more of a shot-blocker than Okur. Best of all, teams will continue to focus on Chris Bosh’s silky game, freeing Bargnani to gun at will. If he does qualify at center, take the plunge on the three-point shooting big man in the seventh round and if he is just a forward, drop him to the ninth.
’07-08 projection: 15.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, 44% FG, 1.7 3-pt fg, 80% FT, 0.7 spg, 1.1 bpg, 2.3 to
3. Rudy Gay
(2006-07 Stats: 10.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 42% FG, 36% 3-pt, 73% FT, .09 spg, 1.0 bpg, 1.8 to)
Inconsistent minutes marred Gay’s foray into fantasy basketball. A superb athlete with solid basketball skills, he has the ability to one day be an eight-category player. Minutes will determine if that happens next year. Regardless, Gay will drastically improve upon his rookie numbers of 10.8 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists per contest. His peripheral numbers should also rise, except for his three-point percentage, where last season he knocked down a surprising 36 percent. Draft Gay in the eighth ninth round, but proceed with caution as the Grizzlies remain unsure of their rotation.
’07-08 projection: 15.6 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 3.0 apg, 43% FG, 0.8 3-pt fg, 74% FT, 1.3 spg, 1.1 bpg, 2.4 to
4. Nene
(2006-07 Stats: 12.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.2 apg, 57% FG, 69% FT, 1.0 spg, 0.9 bpg, 2.0 to)
After missing all but a few minutes of the 2005-06 season following knee surgery, Nene bounced back well in ’06-07. The knee gave him some issues in the early going, but as the season wore on, he showed flashes of the beast he can become. Blessed with the strength of Wes Unseld, Nene was as big a reason for the Nuggets’ late season success as anyone on their roster. He posted averages of 12.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and shot 57 percent from the floor last season, and upped those totals to 15.2 points and 7.8 rebounds while seeing 35.8 minutes of daylight in the playoffs. With the brittle Kenyon Martin returning from his second microfracture surgery and Marcus Camby as his frontcourt mates, a healthy Nene will be relied upon to log big minutes and could prove to be a double-double machine. Draft him in the 10th round as a forward, but slide him up to the eighth round if he qualifies as a center.
’07-08 projection: 12.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.3 apg, 58.4% FG, 69% FT, 1.0 spg, 1.1 bpg, 2.1 to
5. LaMarcus Aldridge
(2006-07 Stats: 9.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.4 apg, 50% FG, 72% FT, 0.4 spg, 1.2 bpg, 0.7 to)
Without a second legitimate threat on the Blazers’ front line, Aldridge has an opportunity to catapult himself towards the league’s stratosphere. The long and athletic second-year player should see his minutes in ’07-08 rise from 22 per game to better than 30. Portland’s lone option in the post, Aldridge will be able to operate with the freedom he needs to succeed. His second-year numbers should improve dramatically. He missed the final two weeks of the ’06-07 due to a rapid heartbeat. Given a clean bill of health, draft Aldridge in the 9th round as a forward and in the 7th if he qualifies at center and prepare to take comfort in his shooting percentages and blocked shots.
’07-08 projection: 14.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 51% FG, 74% FT, 0.6 spg, 1.4 bpg, 1.8 to
Right behind the Big Five, Rotowhine.com also has strong feelings for Rajon Rondo, Walter Herrmann, Trevor Ariza and Renaldo Balkman.
Rondo has a chance to lead the NBA in steals, while also posting decent rebounding and assists numbers as the Celts’ starting point guard. Herrmann, who came out of nowhere in the final month of the 2006-07 season, could find himself in a starting role in Charlotte, where he won’t have to compete for minutes with the injured Sean May.
With Grant Hill baking in the desert, Ariza could see a huge jump in minutes. Don’t expect any threes, but he could be a boon to your team in steals and free throw makes. Balkman is more of a deep sleeper, but given Quentin Richardson’s injury history and putrid shooting percentage, he could be a cheap source for blocks and steals.
